Charles Town Session 3:
My weekends nowadays primarily involve choosing between hanging with Joe and the Spiegel(s) and playing poker at Charles Town. Since Joe and Maria were out of town on Saturday, I decided to make my third on-record visit to the casino. Unfortunately, I hadn't slept well the entire week, including Friday night/Saturday morning, so I don't remember that many hands from the session (although to be fair, there weren't that many interesting hands compared to the previous sessions). I arrived there relatively early (2:40ish), but for some reason, the waitlist was already up to 20, which generally means at least a half-hour wait, and in this case, I finally sat down at 3:30. The table was generally soft, with the only good player sitting 1 seat to my right the entire time until he left.
I buy-in for the customary $200. I'm able to win a couple of hands by c-betting the flop and build my stack to around $240 before the first interesting hand of the night.
-Hand #1-
Villain sits UTG/UTG+1 and even from the short history I have, it's obvious he's a very loose and an overall spewy player. However, he does have a huge stack (~500), so that's always good news. This particular table has loved to limp and this hand is no different. There are about 2-3 limps to me, including villain, and I wake up with AA late position. I make it 16 and villain and a guy in middle position call.
Flop is KQx rainbow. Checks to me so I cbet 25 and only villain calls.
Turn is another Q that does now put a flush draw out there. Villain checks, I bet 35 (hoping now to pot control because the turn is horrible, since villain could have easily called me with a Q or his JT might have added a flush draw). He check-raises me to 75. I think for a while, and while at these levels, this move signals a Q a lot more than it would at higher stakes, I think villain is capable of bluffing the Q with his draw, so I decide to call and reevaluate if he again bets the river.
River is a blank. He insta-bets 100 (which almost puts me all-in). The river has changed nothing so either he has a Q or he's missed his draw. There's 250 in the pot right now, so I'm getting more than 3:1 on my money. From the previous 3-4 hands I've seen him play, he's shown enough missed draws (even gutshots) that his range is essentially AQ, QJ, QT, Q9, AJ, AT, JT, J9, or T9. I've eliminated KQ because I'd expect 1) KQ to raise the flop, and 2) KQ to check-call the turn (or maybe lead out, but not check-raise). AQ, AJ, and AT limping UTG/UTG+1 are odd plays (not impossible but unlikely) and Q9 would be extremely loose, even for villain. That leaves him with QJ, QT, JT, J9, or T9. I do downgrade the possibility of JT, J9, and T9 because it's definitely not a given he would be capable of bluffing the turn Q. However, I only need him to be bluffing 25% of the time, so I have to call. He says good call and shows JT.
This hand leaves me at $500 and I hover around that mark (though at one point, dropping to around 350) for the good part of the next couple of hours. One curious hand I lost was one against the previous villain where I bet two streets in position with middle pair (with a flush draw on the board), and once the flush draw missed, villain curiously checked an overpair to me (and I'd probably have called a decent sized river bet). One hand I won was one against a player I still don't have much information on (as very few of his hands reached showdown). I floated a pocket pair in position for 2 streets (thinking he has A high) and then sucked out by hitting my set on the river and raising him all-in. It certainly seems like my original read was wrong, but at the same time, every draw missed and if he really did have a hand, he probably should have called. I did make one horrendously stupid mistake on a low rainbow paired board (like 775), I miscalculated my pot odds to calling a small-stacked shove (he bet 35 into 30 with an obvious pocket pair) with two overs. Somehow, I end up with 545 when I decide to take my dinner break at 6:30.
I ended up making a horribly stupid decision when I returned. I was worried about being allowed to buy-in for any amount (instead of what I'd left for dinner with), and that's not a problem as long as someone comes back after over an hour from his/her dinner break. However, I came back at 7:20, and once I realized I'd returned too early, I was like, whatever, I can play with 500. Unfortunately, while I was worrying about that, I entirely forgot that the rake is posted at around :25 and :55 every hour, and basically, I had to pay 6 bucks even before playing my first hand when I could have sat down immediately after the rake. It was obviously an insignificant amount in terms of money but stupid mental mistakes like this always end up costing me a lot more in terms of my utility. Anyways, I sat down with my 500 at a table that looked comparatively soft based on the chip stacks, with only one relatively big stack (usually by 7:30, there's at least 2-3 stacks of over 400 at every table).
I immediately get action. On the first hand, I raise late position to 16 after a few limps with suited connectors, and my c-bet takes the pot. On the second hand, I wake up with JJ (my favorite hand and the second time I've gotten them on the day, and they held up as an overpair the first time) and again make it 16. I get two calls (one by a limp before me and one by villain directly to my left). I c-bet 25 on a K-high flop with a flush draw and villain calls with about 60 behind (at which point I'm sure he has a flush draw). The turn is a non-flush J, so I ship, knowing that even on the small chance he has a K, he'll probably call. The river misses the flush, I show my turned set, and villain says he missed. However, the other side of the table thinks I sucked out because they don't hear what villain has said, and I don't correct them because that's always a great reaction to have. I build my stack to around 650 before the second interesting hand of the night.
-Hand #2-
I'm in the cutoff and somehow, it's folded around to me (no limps). I look at K9o and I'm fine playing almost any hand heads-up in position, so I raise to 11. Button and small blind fold and villain raises to 35. Unfortunately, I haven't paid that much attention to what's been going on when not involved in the hand, so I don't really have a read on villain. He's a relatively young Asian guy though, so I think his raising range at this point is relatively wide (i.e. not just big pairs and AK). I end up making 3 mistakes here in calling the raise (this somewhat foreshadows the results of the hand but oh well): 1) I should have had a read on villain had I been paying any attention at all, and the read on him should be that he's super tight; 2) if I didn't have a read, I shouldn't have been willing to commit so much preflop and leave myself subject to so much variance when my EV on this hand can't be very positive; 3) K9o is just such a bad hand against preflop raisers that I simply should have waited for a better opportunity anyways. Unfortunately, I end up placing too much value on not setting a precedent for raising me preflop (i.e. I don't want anyone else to get the idea that they can get me to fold my preflop opens), when this shouldn't be a problem at these levels because not enough players pay attention to details like that.
Anyways, I call the 35 and see a flop of K87 all spades. He c-bets 50 into the pot of 70, and since I also have the 9 of spades, I call. (Nothing wrong with this street, as I'm now ahead of any hand that didn't dominate me preflop).
Turn is a non-spade 6 (the worst card in the deck for me). He ships for 125. Now, it's obvious he has AK or AA. I need to call 125 to win 300, so I need at least 14-15 outs. If he doesn't have the A of spades, I easily more than enough odds to call (9 flush outs, 6 additional straight outs, 3 2-pair outs, and 2 more trips outs if he has AA for a total of 18/20 outs). If he does have the A of spades, I then only have 9 outs (if he has AK) and 11 outs (if he has AA). Given no additional post-flop information, the probability that he has AA is higher if he does have the A of spades (i.e. weighted towards 11 outs instead of 9), and the probability that he has the A of spades is less than 50% (50% if he has AA, 25% if he has AK, so weighted towards the 18/20 outs than the 9/11 outs). Furthermore, I think the AA or AK without the A of spades has to bet large on both the flop and turn, while AA or AK with the A of spades is so strong on this board that he could easily try to extract max value by betting 35-40 on the flop and then 60-70 on the turn (because if I have a K without a spade, I have to fold the turn shove instantly, and maybe even the almost pot-sized flop bet). If there's a 50% chance he has AA vs AK, and a 50% chance he has the A of spades, then I still have odds to call (my expected outs is 14.5), but since it's more likely he has AA and more likely he does not have the A of spades, the call becomes very easy.
River is a non-spade blank. Villain shows AA with the A of spades (so I only had 11 outs). This hand is one of those situations where a bad preflop mistake ends up trumping good postflop play.
This hand leaves me at a little over 400, and slightly rattled. After some additional consideration, I conclude (correctly), that my post flop calls were defensible and correct. I slowly build my stack back up, with a number of well played hands, including the following.
-Hand #3-
I'm in the big blind with T8o. There about 2-3 limps around, including by villain on the button. I check my option.
Flop is KTx with a flush draw. Check around to villain, who bets 6 into the pot of 10. Only I call.
Turn is a blank. I check, he bets 15. At this point, I'm almost certain villain has the flush draw, because any K he'd play preflop should have raised in position instead of limped.
River is a non-flush A. I check again, and he bets 25. The ace is probably the best card in the deck for me (outside of a T, or maybe the 9 but that hits the open-ender), because most people with a K would check the river when the A hits. Because villain bets, I'm almost certain he has a missed draw (of course, he could have had the nut flush draw), so I call instantly. He says good call and I show my T for the win.
I'm back over 500, and after another hour, slowly make it up close to 575. The final interesting hand of the night then occurs.
-Hand #4-
I'm on the button and villain is UTG. He's a very bad player in the sense that he's probably played poker for fewer hours in his life than I have the last 3 sessions. (One hand previously involved me c-betting OOP with an open-ender and then conceding the turn after he and another player call the flop, but he ends up not betting the turn with his trips when both of us check). He limps, as do 2-3 more players, and I do as well with 56o.
Flop comes KQ5 rainbow. Checks around to me, so I decide to take the pot right here if I'm ahead, and possibly set up a bigger pot if I hit my 5 outer on the turn/river (while in position). I bet 6 into the pot of 10, and only villain calls.
Turn is another 5. Villain checks, and I bet 15. He calls.
River is an 8. Villain checks, I value-bet 35, and he check-raises all-in for 65 more. This totally surprises me, as I just can't see any hand that would play this way. Villain doesn't seem like the type of bad player to try to limp KK or QQ preflop, and he certainly doesn't seem to be capable to float me twice OOP with 88. The only hand I can see him having is A5 (remember, beginners love their ace-rags), but he could have a whole number of hands that I would still beat. I've seen enough players at Charles Town who think that 3 pair is a great hand (i.e. KQ or K8), and plenty more who'll bluff their missed draws regardless of whether they have a credible story. The fact that his check-raise shove simply makes no sense to me whatsoever leaves me tanking for a while, but ultimately, I think there's maybe a 10% chance he has A5 and has me beat (and maybe a 1% chance he's got a boat) so I have to call. He shows KT, and says, "I thought you had a Q so I wanted you to call." Yup, totally the noobiest kind of noob...
After a few more hands, I start to get a headache, and I've been exhausted the entire session so I decide to call it a night relatively early at 10:30. I leave my post-dinner session with 733, and that leaves me up 233 for those 3 hours, for a total of +578 for the entire day.
-Summary-
Time at the tables: 6 hours
Poker: +$578
Gas and food: ~ -$20
Net: ~ +$558
-On record career to date-
Time at the tables: 14.75 hours
Poker: +$551
Net: ~ +$495
Brags: Made some great calls today, especially given that I tend to fold to too many river raises/bets.
Beats: Shouldn't have called the 3-bet preflop against the AA in the big blind.
Variance: This may or may not be a trend, but I've been losing a lot of ginormous pots recently (small = <$100, medium = $100-$200, big = $200-$300, ginormous = >$300). Part of that has probably been the ill-advised and ill-timed bluffs from the previous sessions, but the other has been the result of seeing big flops with marginal hands (i.e. hands that can easily be behind even after hitting). If I can cut down on these losses, I'll be able to increase my net profits dramatically (even keeping in mind that a lot of the big/ginormous pots I do win are a product of my wide preflop range).
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