Sunday, December 23, 2012

Charles Town Session 20: Variance at its worst and finest

Charles Town Session 20 (December 22, 2012):
Crazy session yesterday, first at 1-2 and then at 2-5.  At 1-2, I first won an early 600 pot with a flopped flush against a supposed set of aces.  Then I lost a 250 dollar pot after hitting an A-Q-7 flop with A7, getting it all in on the flop against AT, only to have a Q hit the river.  Finally, I lost a 1000 pot with 6-2 clubs on a 5-4-3 rainbow (with 1 club) board against 4-4 that rivered a boat (6-7 was in for the main pot of 200).  At 2-5, the table was extremely loose and aggressive, with one extremely maniacal degenerate.  I lost 500 early, 250 of it barreling twice with AK, and another 300 of it on a coin flip with QJ spades against AK on a flop of K98 with 2 spades.  Once I realized that everyone at the table was fairly loose and very aggressive, and there were was the one guy who over-bet everything, I decided to just shut down and play extremely nitty and passive poker.  First I won 300 from him with AA against QQ and then I won 600 from him with JJ against 88.  Anyways, here are the most interesting hands of the day/night.

-Hand #1-
58 spades UTG+2, Villain 1 in late position, Villain 2 on button.
Lots of limps, Villain 1 raises 10, 5 people see flop.
Flop is Axx all spades, I check, Villain 1 bets 30, Villain 2 calls, I call.
Turn is a blank, I check Villain 1 bets 50, Villain 2 calls, I raise 150, Villain 1 jams for 100 more, Villain 2 tank folds, I call.
River is another spade, I show my flopped flush, Villain 1 mucks and claims to have had AA, Villain 2 claims to have had the K of spades.
Analysis:
Nothing to really say here, as everything is consistent with my style.  Let the draws get an inexpensive turn, and punish them on the turn.

-Hand #2-
A7o middle position, Villain straddle.
I raise 15, Villain calls.
Flop is AQ7 rainbow, Villain bets 20, I raise 50, Villain re-raises allin for 60 more.
Turn is a blank, river is a Q, Villain shows AT and I'm counterfeited.
Analysis:
Again, nothing to really say here.  Villain was horrible (top pair for him was always the nuts), and I was able to get another all-in as a 70% favorite.

-Hand #3-
62 clubs middle position, Villain 1 one seat after me, Villain 2 UTG.
Villain 1 limps, I limp, Villain 2 limps, someone else raises 12, 6 people see flop.
Flop is 543 rainbow (with 1 club).  Villain 2 checks, I check, Villain 1 checks, pre-flop raiser bets 25, Villain 2 raises 75, I re-raise 150, Villain 1 all-in for 70, Villain 2 re-raises all-in for 425, I tank call.
Turn is a blank, river is a 5, Villain 2 shows 44 for the rivered boat.
Analysis:
The decision of whether to call the additional 300 all-in from Villain 2 is based on the chances he's a bad player.  I would be calling 300 to win ~600 (I'm excluding Villain 1 from the hand, which is actually conservative, because small stacks more often than usual don't have the nuts in this scenario, meaning I should expect there to be a smaller than 33% chance he has 67).  Granted, if Villain 2 does have 67, I'm destroyed, as I have only a 12% to chop and 5% to win, for a total of 10% equity.  If Villain 2 has A2, it's the total opposite of 67, and I have 90% equity.  If Villain 2 has a set, I have 65% equity.  So basically, if there's any chance that Villain 2 is going to play this way with A2 or a set, I have more than enough odds.  Furthermore, I usually wouldn't expect 67 to play this way, as he really shouldn't be afraid of anything.  There's no flush draw, 2 pairs/sets have very few outs, and all reasonable straight draws are draws to chop.  As a result, I would expect Villain 2 to often call the flop bet with 67.

After playing a couple more hands and losing around 50, I realize I'm tilting a little and decide to go eat.  After coming back, I play 1-2 for about 30 minutes more, and eventually make it back above even for the day.  Still, I'm afraid of some additional tilting, so I decide to play 2-5, which helps keep me in check.
-Hand #4-
AKs middle position, Villain right before me.
Villain raises 15, I re-raise 50, Villain calls.
Flop is 954 with two hearts, Villain checks, I bet 75, Villain calls.
Turn is a 5, Villain checks, I bet 125, Villain calls.
River is 3 of hearts, Villain checks, I check, Villain shows 43.
Analysis:
I'd realized before the hand that Villain was very loose with his pre-hands, but I didn't expect 43.  Still, my 2 barrel bluff was probably the worst of both worlds.  I could have gotten free/cheap turns/rivers by checking behind, and given Villain's looseness, I would expect the flop and turn calls to be easiest for him (assuming he hits any part of the board, he could call both with showdown value and to chase two pair/trips).  However, if I do want to represent a hand, I would be repping either AA/KK or AK of hearts, and in both cases, I would value the river after a check.  Although to be honest, after learning even more about Villain after the hand, I'd expect him to call there (he called off all of his money later basically to catch a bluff).  Still, many bad LAG players still fold there, and given my information, I probably should have fired a third barrel.

-Hand #5-
QJ spades BB, Villain on button.
Villain raises 35, I call.
Flop is K98 with 2 spades, I check, Villain bets 70, I jam for 150 more, Villain calls.
Turn is a blank, river is a blank, Villain shows AK.
Analysis:
I probably shouldn't have called the 35 preflop bet from Villain, because he was one of the solid players at the table, and at best, I'm against a pocket pair TT and under or AK, and even then, I'm still OOP.  I was just so excited to see a good hand (I'd been mostly card dead up until that point) that I wanted to see a flop at any cost.

-Hand #6-
AA UTG+2, Villain middle position.
UTG raises 20, I re-raise 60, Villain re-raises 160, I re-raise 260, Villain calls.
Flop is Kxx, I play with my chips, Villain folds disgustedly, showing QQ and saying he was trying to chase a Q.
Analysis:
In hindsight, I probably could have gotten more from Villain, given that he was the maniac.  Given that he has me on AA/KK and still called 100 to chase his Q on the flop (he has a 10% chance of flopping a Q (I only had 450 to start the hand, so he's not getting great odds to chase his Q, assuming max implied odds for him), I probably could have gotten an additional 50-100 out of him, if not my entire stack (although in the final case, I would have to fade two additional streets, so actually, it's not horrible that I didn't go all-in).  Still, the ideal amount probably would have been to raise to 300-350 and leave myself with 100 to bet the flop.  The same action probably would have occurred in that case.

-Hand #7-
88 middle position, Villain 1 button, Villain 2 SB.
I limp, Villain 1 raises 20, 5 people see flop.
Flop is 874 with 2 spades, I check, Villain 1 bets 45, Villain 2 calls, I call.
Turn is 5 of spades, Villain 2 checks, I check, Villain 1 checks.
River is a blank, Villain 2 bets 65, I call, Villain 1 folds, Villain 2 shows KT spades.
Analysis:
Obviously, the river call is horrendous.  3-handed, you can't expect a 65 bluff into a pot of 200 won't get called.  I was just frustrated by how the hand turned out, and perhaps frustrated with my own play at the time.  In hindsight, outside of the river call, I'm fine with how I played that hand.  The flop has a very possible 65 straight, and given that I'm 700 deep at this point (and both Villains and 1 of the other players to see the flop have me covered), I don't want to raise and both possibly have to fold a re-raise and increase the pot when the flush draw/open-ender inevitably call.  The turn check is obviously easy, but assuming Villain 1 was the one who had the flush and bet again, I can call there repping a number of hands (straight, baby flush, A of spades) in addition to what I actually had.  Granted, I'd established a nitty image by that point, so if I did river the boat, it's possible I wouldn't have gotten paid off very much.

-Hand #8-
JJ UTG+1, Villain 1 middle position, Villain 2 BB.
I limp, Villain 1 raises 25, 6 people see flop.
Flop is 444, Villain 2 bets 50, I call, Villain 1 raises 150, Villain 2 folds, I call.
Turn is a 2, I check, Villain 1 bets 250, I tank shove for 200 more, Villain 1 snap calls.
River is a T, I show JJ and Villain 1 shows 88.
Analysis:
Villain again was the maniac, and after his flop raise, I'd already made up my mind that I was going to eventually go all-in, given that I know he's going to keep firing regardless of what he has (so I'm not actually getting any more information, so making up my mind there isn't horrible).  First, I had to consider the likelihood he would play this way with a lower pocket than JJ, and I'd guessed that 88/99/TT wasn't any less likely than QQ/KK/AA.  Furthermore, he'd exhibited a pretty consistent pattern of basing his pre-flop raise size on the strength of his hand, so a 25 raise didn't scream QQ/KK/AA.  This hand ended up being one of my adjustments to the maniac at the table, as I would never play this way against normal players (calling off/re-raising all-in for 600 with JJ when most people wouldn't be in there with anything less than TT).

-Hand #9-
QQ UTG, Villain BB.
I limp, Villain raises 50, I call.
Flop is JJx, Villain bets 65, I call.
Turn is a blank, Villain checks, I check.
River is a J, Villain checks, I bet 120, Villain folds.
Analysis:
This was poorly played, and the reason it was played this way was due to cowardice.  I was slightly scared that Villain was checking the turn with AA/KK to trap me.  However, there are two reasons I think that this is unlikely.  One, most people outside of me don't do that.  Two, I'd given off a very passive table image to that point, so Villain shouldn't have expected me to bet the turn with QQ/TT/99. By checking behind, I'm giving him a free card to either hit or bluff (he obviously has the A, but it's not clear if he has AK or AQ, so the K is dangerous as well).  Furthermore, if the river misses, I can't expect to be paid off, so I might as well try to get him to pay me off on the turn with AK/AQ (he still has showdown value and outs).

-On record career to date-
Time at 1-2 cash tables: 134 hours
1-2 Cash: +$3310
Time at 2-5 cash tables: 75 hours
2-5 Cash: +$1440
Total time at cash tables: 209 hours
Cash games: +$4750
Time at tournies: 30 hours
Tournies: -$2840
Poker total: +$1910
Net: +$900

Brags:  I walked away when I realized I might tilt.  I played 1-2 perfectly for the session.  While my 2-5 play wasn't perfect by any stretch of the imagination, I was able to realize the market inefficiency (the maniac), my likely disadvantages against everyone else, and exploit the one advantage I had.
Beats:  I'm not convinced I can beat 2-5 yet against a table full of the better players (there wer 4-5 of them at my table yesterday; the other 3-4, including the maniac, were horrible).  They're able to combine tight play with a more accurate feel of when to not fold (when I actually play well at 2-5, I still fold too much).
Variance:  Up to and including the $1000 rivered-boat hand, I'd lost 5 of 6 pre-river all-ins in which I was the favorite (and in 4 of them, I had >50% pot equity, with the 4-handed pre-flop all-in from last week the exception).

Friday, December 21, 2012

The last 6 months

I've been too lazy to update this, partly because I've had some poor sessions in the last half year and partly because it takes too long to write all of these posts.  So from now on, there will be a lot less commentary.

In June prior to my Vegas trip, I had 2 Charles Town sessions, primarily to become more familiar with 2-5, but I was down a net $1100 combined.  At Vegas, I ran really well in cash games to start, up around $2000 in the first couple of days playing 2-5, and making a number of mistakes that caused me to win even less than I should have.  I also played 2 $1000 WSOP events, cashing in neither.  In both cases, I bluffed/called away up to a third of my starting stack early, which left me small stacked the entire tournaments.  I did, however, play both well short-stacked, surviving until 350th (just outside of the money, which paid 320 places) in one but getting knocked out with JJ against AJ and AA in the other.  After the two events, I stopped running well in cash games, and lost about a net $1000 in the last few sessions.  The main problem in addition to running poorly was an inability to devise an optimal strategy to how to play 2-5 (i.e. in 1-2, I'll chase with high-upside hands because 1-2 players don't bet much prior to the river, and they'll pay off most river value bets).  After that and another poor 2-5 session at Charles Town in July, I decided to take a break from poker.

I started playing again starting with my Thanksgiving vacation in Reno and another time at Bay 101 in San Jose.  I was able to play 1-2 very well in both sessions, and also fixing my call-fold imbalances that surfaced during the summer.  Back at Charles Town, I had a well-played session of 1-2 but ran poorly and only won $200, and then a following 2-5 session in which I ran extremely poorly and lost $1000.

Here are the most interesting hands of the past 2 months:

Reno Session 1 (November 30, 2012):
-Hand #1-
KQs middle position, Villain in hijack.
I raise 13, Villain calls.
Flop is Q9x rainbow, I bet 20, Villain calls.
Turn is a blank club (2 clubs on board), I bet 30, Villain calls.
River is a non club ace, I check, Villain bets 100, I tank call.  Villain shows KJ clubs for K high.
Analysis:
This is a matter of Villain having no credible story.  A number of hands actually have me beat: any ace, two pair, or set.  However, given the obvious JT open-ender and various gutshot/overcard combos like KJ/KT, I would expect any two pair/set to raise by the turn (whether they should raise the flop is debatable; I personally prefer not to raise the flop, especially in position).  Even assuming non-optimal behavior from Villain, I can't imagine many bad players not raising at some point either.  And the other hand that has me beat, the Ace, shouldn't be in the hand except to float the flop, given that there's no draw involving an ace.  Furthermore, assuming Ax clubs that floated the flop and wants to value the river, the bet is too big to be reasonable.  A pair of aces is still beat by a number of potential hands that would check-call in my position (i.e. Q9s), and given that he should expect such a big bet to get many one-pair hands (that he has beat) to fold, a smaller value would make a lot more sense.  Finally, every draw missed, from the obvious JT, the KJ/KT, and any turned club draw, and that gives me more than enough odds to call.
It can be argued villain should have raised the turn, since I would have easily folded.  Granted, he can't assume I'm a decent player, so I could theoretically call the raise.  As a result, he might have been looking to maximize implied odds if he hits his draws, especially since even I most likely pay him off if either of his draws hit, given that they're not the most obvious draws to be chasing.
I too often like to pot control, because it maximizes my EV given my strengths and weaknesses (namely, I don't read raises well).  This hand shows the pluses of betting when you're likely still ahead.

-Hand #2-
AA on botton, Villain BB.
I raise 12, Villain calls.
Flop is Q77 rainbow, Villain checks, I check.
Turn is 8 of spades (2 spades on board), Villain checks, I bet 15, Villain raises 35, I call.
River is a blank, Villain bets 55, I call, Villain shows 77.
Analysis:
My favorite move is the pot control check with an overpair on a paired board.  People normally call flop bets with draws anyways, so the only people the flop bet affects are the two pair draws.  However, given the paired board, that eliminates a number of outs.  And a flop check gives people another chance to hit something so that I can value the turn/river.

-Hand #3-
Straddle 89 clubs, Villain 1 UTG+2, Villain 3 UTG+3.
Villain 1 calls, Villain 2 raises 15, I call, Villain 1 calls.
Flop is A34 with 2 clubs, I check, Villain 1 checks, Villain 2 bets 25, I call, Villain 1 calls.
Turn is 2 of clubs, I check, Villain 1 checks, Villain 2 checks.
River is non club 5, I bet 105, Villain 1 folds, Villain 2 tank calls.
Analysis:
This hand ended up being played perfectly, but not necessarily for all of the reasons I'd anticipated.  First off, I've learned to limit flop raises with draws in 1-2 because there just isn't enough fold equity for betting and there's too much implied odds for calling, especially when compared to higher levels.  My reasoning behind the turn check was actually to get more information about Villain 1's hand (I already had a very narrow range for Villain 2--something like 70% pair between 5 and A, 25% A, and 5% something else).  Namely, I wanted to know if Villain 1 had the A of clubs (or another high club), regardless if the A was just a draw or if it was already part of a made flush, as I'd expect him to bet the turn in these scenarios.  However, my check turned out even better when the 5 hit the river.  People (including me) often act irrationally when big preflop hands hit a horrible flop (or big flop hands hit a horrible turn) and then get deceivingly better on the following street.  In this case, he most likely had a high pocket pair that c-bet the flop, shut down on the turn because one of us had to at least have an A, and then mistakingly believed that the river 5 saved him.  Plus, the size of my river bet looks so deceivingly like a bluff (the chances of getting a call to chop don't necessarily decrease as the size of the bet increases), so a large bet there is likely to have a much higher EV than a smaller bet.

Bay 101 Session 7 (December 3, 2012):
No real interesting hands, especially since it was an abbreviated cash session as I entered the morning 120-buyin tournament (and failed to cash again).

Charles Town Session 18 (December 9, 2012):
-Hand #4-
T8o in cutoff, Villain 1 UTG, Villain 2 in middle position.
Villain 1 limps, Villain 2 limps, I raise 13, Villain 1 calls, Villain 2 calls.
Flop is J97 with 2 diamonds, Villain 1 checks, Villain 2 checks, I bet 15, Villain 1 calls, Villain 2 raises 45, I jam for 200+ more, Villain 2 folds out of turn, Villain 1 tank calls.
Turn is a blank.
River is blank diamond.  Villain 1 mucks and says he had two pair (top two probably).
Analysis:
Again, a perfect move in hindsight for not necessarily the correct reasons.  My reasoning for the huge re-raise is that I'm not sure I can optimally play the following streets if they aren't blanks (diamonds/board pairs/higher straight cards).  As a result, I accepted the likelihood of just winning the pot there, and getting called would just be gravy.  It ended up being a good move because Villain 1 had two pair and called, which may have been the correct move for him.  There are so many bad players in 1-2 who raise small preflop and then overbet/raise the flop without regard to board texture.  Of course, given my demographic (young Asian), it's much less likely I play that way, but still, it's not clear his call was bad.  Knowing he has two pair, my jam is actually fine as a result (even assuming I can play optimally on future streets without the jam, because there's enough of a likelihood he calls), but I shouldn't expect him to have had 2 pair.

-Hand #5-
AKo UTG+1, Villain UTG.
Villain limps, I raise 13, Villain calls.
Flop is QTx rainbow, Villain checks, I bet 15, Villain calls.
Turn is a J, Villain checks, I bet 35, Villain calls.
River is a T, Villain checks, I tank check.  Villain shows 89.
Analysis:
I think I played this hand incorrectly and not just in hindsight.  Again, the reasoning behind the check was the belief that I wouldn't necessarily respond optimally to a large raise, and given the stack sizes, a raise could have gotten as high as 200, which would be more than pot size.  Villain was a very tight player the whole day, so his range for limping UTG and calling a raise is any pocket pair until JJ, AK/AQ/AJ/suited A's, suited connectors/one-gappers, and some suited K's (like KQ/KJ, maybe KT/K9).  However, given my information, I couldn't expect him to call K9/89 on the flop very often, so that's not the reason I think I should have bet the river.  However, possible hands I can see calling the river are AQ (AQ probably raises the flop but that's not guaranteed), KQs, QJs, KTs/T9s (T's often can be good on the flop if I have an underpair, and turn brings an open-ender).  Hands that have me beat are basically QTs, JTs, and QQ/JJ.  However, the reasoning behind betting is that I should be bet-fold-ing.  My range easily includes QQ, JJ, and TT, so it's basically those hands and AK/AQ/AJ.  Villain should expect AK to call the river raise anyways, so most of the hands in my range would call his raise.  As a result, this should easily deter a check-raise bluff on the river (if he's sophisticated enough to check-raise bluff that board, he should be sophisticated enough to think this through).  Further adding to this decision is that I would expect most people to lead out on the river with the full house.

-Hand #6-
A6 clubs UTG+2, Villain 1 BB, Villain 2 UTG+1.
Villain 2 raises 10, I call, Villain 1 calls.
Flop is J54 with 2 clubs, Villain 1 checks, villain 2 bets 15, I call, Villain 1 calls.
Turn is 8 of diamonds (2 diamonds on board), Villain 1 checks, Villain 2 checks, I bet 40, Villain 1 calls, Villain 2 folds.
River is non-club/diamond A, Villain 1 checks, I bet 40, Villain 1 calls and shows AQ diamonds.
Analysis:
The first extra piece of information is that Villain 1 was a very old lady, and it was clear she wasn't very good.  However, it wasn't obvious until after this hand that she was bad enough to call 3-way with 2 overs and a backdoor flush draw (and I guarantee that the backdoor flush wasn't part of her decision process).  In other words, I played this hand perfectly.  The flop call with the nut flush draw is standard at 1-2, given that, as stated earlier, raising isn't worth it (especially since my hand isn't that strong if I get reraised as the A is now likely useless).  The turn bet is standard in position given the checks, as I can get pairs to fold, and/or weaker flush draws to call (against whom I also have showdown value with A high).  With the river A, I would expect Villain 1 (especially since she's an old lady and is almost guaranteed to not have the check-raise in her arsenal) to lead out with a rivered two pair, so the only way my A isn't good is against a flopped/turned two pair that was played poorly (too many draws for her to be calling on the turn) or something ridiculous like what she actually had.  The size was also about right for most people (and especially bad players) to not be scared enough by the ace.

-Hand #7-
JJ UTG+1, Villain in middle position.
I raise 12, Villain reraises 35, I call.
Flop is KQx, I check, Villain checks.
Turn is a blank, I check, Villain bets 55, I fold.  Villain implies he had KK/QQ.
Analysis:
Earlier that day, I'd actually folded AKo to a 3-bet, which I'd never done before, and I honestly think I should have done the same thing here.  1-2 in general is just so nitty that unless an extreme manic raises, you're almost always against AA/KK/QQ/JJ on a 3-bet.  You could theoretically be against AK/TT as well, but I don't exactly want to play a pot OOP when I should be folding on any non-J flop against the majority of Villain's range (so even if I'm against AK/TT, I should be folding to a c-bet).  In that case, JJ is no different from any lower pocket pair, as I'm basically set mining, which is something you don't want to do when Villain has only 4-5x his raise behind.

-Hand #8-
AA straddle, Villain 1 in middle position, Villain 2 after Villain 1, Villain 3 in BB.
Lots of calls to me, I raise 25, Villain 1 calls, Villain 2 calls, Villain 3 calls.
Flop is 665 rainbow, Villain 3 jams for 50, I call, Villain 2 folds, Villain 1 raises 100 more, I move allin for ~80 more, Villain 1 calls.
Turn is a blank.  River is a blank.  Everyone mucks, and Villain 1 claims to have had a hand similar to last time (the QQ/KK).
Analysis:
Pretty straightforward.  Only decision is whether to call or raise Villain 3's jam, and calling pretty much weakly dominates raising (the only case it wouldn't would be if Villain 1 had 78 and that's not likely).  Plus, he thought about raising my raise preflop, so unless it was an act, he clearly has an overpair as well.  Anyways, calling makes it much more likely an inferior overpair comes in and perhaps raises, which supposedly is what happened.

Charles Town Session 19 (December 15, 2012):
No real strategically interesting hands.  Played a little 1-2, was card dead after winning a big early pot, entered a 150 buy-in tournament (that had ridiculously fast escalating blinds--dumped 1/3 of my chips in a stupid pot with 77 on a board with an A, and then got knocked out with A3o against A3s), and then played 2-5.  The following hands are mostly about me bitching about my luck (only post all-in luck, not even the fact that I couldn't hit a flop all night).  I ended up playing 3+ hours of 2-5 without winning a single hand, not even a preflop takedown.

-Hand #9-
AQ UTG+2 with a 300 stack (small for 2-5), Villain 1 on button, Villain 2 SB.
I limp, Villain 1 raises 25, Villain 2 calls, I raise 70, Villain 1 calls, Villain 2 calls.
Flop is JTx rainbow.  Villain 2 jams for 150, I tank call, Villain 1 folds.  Villain 2 flips over KQ.
Turn is an A, and River is a 9 (just to rub it in further).
Analysis:
I played this hand perfectly.  In 2-5 with a 300 stack, you can't afford to open too many pots, because any reraise pot commits you against someone who is repping a better starting hand.  As a result, the limp raise becomes a much bigger weapon for a wide range of hands (it will also get the AA/KK limp raises paid off more).  I probably could have raised preflop a little more, because I was trying to take the pot there, but I'm not sure how much an extra 10-15 would have affected their decisions.  Anyways, the flop jam is very suspicious.  Villain 2 is much less likely to be jamming into the pre-flop raiser with a set/2-pair, so really, most of his range is now limited to QJ, KJ, AJ, KQ, AQ, AK (less likely, I would have expected a preflop raise before my raise).  I have more than enough odds to call against QJ, barely enough odds to call against KJ/AJ, and I'm the favorite against KQ and AQ.  Of course, the problem is that Villain 1 could have very likely flopped a set, but I'm getting great enough odds against Villain 2 to take that risk.  Anyways, the pot ended up being 490, I lost 210, and I had 72% equity (350) at the time of the all-in.

-Hand #10-
JJ in middle position, Villain 1 on button, Villain 2 BB.
I raise 25, Villain 1 calls, Villain 2 calls.
Flop is xxx with 2 hearts, I bet 50, Villain 1 reraises allin for 50 more, Villain 2 folds, I call.
Turn is a heart, river is a blank.  Villain 1 shows Q3 hearts.
Analysis:
Again, perfectly played.  I'm trying to induce an all-in reraise from Villain 1, which deters Villain 2 from calling as well, because I can reraise.  anyways, the pot ended up being 275, I lost 125, and I had 53% equity (145) at the time of the all-in.

-Hand #11-
AQ in BB with 80 stack, Villain 1 limps, Villain 2 raises 25, Villain 3 calls, I reraise all-in, Villain 1 calls, Villain 2 calls, Villains 3 calls.
Board ends up 8855x, and Villain 2 has 89o and Villain 3 has 8Js.
Analysis:
Given the action, I expect Villain 1 to have had a suited connector or suited A (flop was 85x, so most pocket pairs are likely to take a stab at the pot/are still ahead).  Assuming he has 2 live cards or something that includes a J or 9, I have at least 40% equity; against a suited A, I have 35% equity.  All in all, the pot ended up being 320, I lost 80, and I had ~37% equity (120) at the time of the allin.

Basically EV from these 3 hands should have been 615, which would have made my net loss <100 in 2-5 and just under 400 total on the night.

-On record career to date-
Time at 1-2 cash tables: 129 hours
1-2 Cash: +$3160
Time at 2-5 cash tables: 71 hours
2-5 Cash: +$880
Total time at cash tables: 200 hours
Cash games: +$4040
Time at tournies: 30 hours
Tournies: -$2840
Poker total: +$1200
Net: including airfare for my Vegas trip? ~+$200

Brags:  I feel like I've gotten better?  I guess that's the only plus...
Beats:  I've been playing tournies pretty poorly, and the main thing is that I can't seem to figure out how to play the micro blinds.  I haven't hit early in any of these tournies so that's part of it, but should I just be playing extremely tight then (nuts or fold)?  No body's been folding to any bluffs/semi-bluffs (and the semi-bluffs of course haven't hit a single time).
Variance:  Moving to 2-5 means having to deal with the much more extreme swings.

Tuesday, May 29, 2012

Charles Town Sessions 14 & Home Game Session 2: How a measly $360 profit after a 12 hour session can still be promising

Charles Town Session 14 (May 26, 2012):

Given a 3 day Memorial Day Weekend, I decided to play a lot of poker, partly to prepare myself for my Vegas trip next month.  I decided to spend a longer session at Charles Town on Saturday, and arrived at 11:00.  Neither the 1-2 nor the 2-5 list was long yet, so I decided to play 1-2 to start, with the hope that I could feast on the holiday weekend fish.

Honestly, I don't remember much of what happened in the first couple of hours.  There weren't many interesting hands, as I was largely card dead, both in terms of hole cards and in terms of flops.  Regardless, I built my stack to around 500 after buying in for 260.  I'd already been leaking chips away for a while given the cold deck, but I'd actively been trying to stay patient.  It was all downhill from then.
-Hand #1-
I'm dealt 74o in the big blind.  Villain sits two seats to my left with about 250 and limps early position.  Someone raises to 7 and about 5 of us see the flop.
Flop comes K74 with a flush draw.  I check, villain leads out with 15 and everyone folds to me.  I call.  Villain has been an extremely loose player, and not the effective kind of loose.  However, with bottom two and large effective stacks, I can't raise OOP.  I'm putting villain on K with a T+ kicker, so I'm watching out for high cards.
Turn comes a non-flush card Q.  This is a pretty significant scare card, and while villain has been loose, he's been pretty passive with marginal hands.  I check, and he bets 35, which concerns me.  Had the turn been a blank, I'd be looking to check raise the turn.  However, I can only call given that KQ is entirely within villain's range.
River is a non-flush card 7.  Now, I have 7's full.  I don't think the 7 is that scary, so I can realistically get a call from a pretty large value bet.  I think villain has around 130 behind (he actually has almost 200, which would have increased my bet in hindsight but it doesn't actually affect the results of the hand), so I bet 85.  Villain makes some long elaborate speech about how he thinks I must have 74 (which from hindsight I can imagine might cause someone to jump him in a home game, because he has 74 beat, and is slow rolling me since I'm calling regardless), and then shoves.  Thinking he has around 50 behind even though he has significantly more, I call and he shows Q7o.  WTF?  Q7?  He played this hand so horribly and ended up lucking out with the perfect sequence of board cards.  In hindsight, while a 100+ raise would make me think a little longer about calling, I'd probably be forced to call anyways.  Given the way he played the hand, he would have done the exact same thing with any other hand (especially any other non-boat 7).  I'm frustrated with the outcome of the hand (he happened to have the case 7 and hit a runner runner against me), but not necessarily with the way I played.  After that cooler, I'm actively trying to stay patient, which is obviously a good sign.

About 5 hands later comes the next cooler.
-Hand #2-
I'm dealt AA in late position.  I make it 16 after a couple of limps.  Only the small blind calls, with about 200-250.
Flop comes K33.  Villain leads out for 25, and he's one of the easiest players to read I've played with, and I'm 100% sure he has a K (the kicker doesn't matter whatsoever, given that the paired board makes it so that I don't have to worry about him hitting his kicker).  I call, fully expecting him to continue betting.
Turn is a T.  As expected, villain bets 45.  I call again.
River is a fucking K.  Villain bets 75, and I fold face-up, visibly frustrated.  Villain shows the K sheepishly.

Normally, one of these hands doesn't rattle me, but collectively (and along with the overall lack of cards and flops), I start going on tilt a little.  The plus side is that I notice this, and only donate about 50-100 more than I otherwise would have (while I did lose more chips, a lot of that was unavoidable).  As I continue to be card dead, I start loosening up (and still don't hit anything), and after losing another 100 or so, I decide to sign up for 2-5 with the hope that the discomfort with the game can tighten up my game.  Unfortunately, the list is much longer than hoped, and I end up playing an extra 30 minutes or so at the 1-2 (even going as far as to sit out a number of hands to keep myself from leaking away even more chips).

Anyways, I finally sit down at my 2-5 table and notice one thing: everyone is big stacked (there was maybe one player with below 400) and a number of players are enormous stacked (1000+).  Given that everyone is so big stacked (as opposed to just one or two players), that suggests that most of the players are 2-5 regs, as opposed to some of the weaker players I'd played with in my previous 2-5 sessions.  My plan coming in given the field is to play extremely nitty poker.

I buy-in for 300, partly to limit my swings and partly because being the only short stack at a table of big stacks lets me take advantage of small stack poker (since everyone is both big stacked and LAG, I can wait for premium hands and reraise preflop).  I fold about 2 full rounds preflop before I even see my first flop.  I build an extreme rep at the table for being really tight, and I use that to my advantage.  I win a couple of pots preflop just by 3-betting (albeit with actually good hands, like QQ) and from showing down a hand with a turned straight on a board of 4578, but without betting/raising once during the hand (part of it was because I didn't want to get reraised on the river, and part of it was that I wanted to reraise the river).  Instead, the river gets checked around, and I'm sure how I played this hand influenced a couple of hands later on.  I eventually build my stack to around 500 before the first interesting hand at 2-5.
-Hand #3-
I'm dealt AA in the big blind.  Villain is UTG and raises to 35.  There's only one call to me and I repop to 105.  Only villain calls.
Flop is T94 rainbow.  I c-bet 125, villain folds his JJ faceup and I show my AA.  (I've realized that I want to reaffirm my image as an extremely tight player, as having an extreme image one way or another makes it easy to take advantage of one's image).

After about 10-20 minutes, I'm again dealt a big hand in a blind.
-Hand #4-
I have AKo in the small blind.  Cutoff raises to 25, I repop to 75, and he calls.
Flop comes Jxx rainbow.  I c-bet 105, and villain calls.
Turn is a blank.  I decide to shut down given that villain both called my preflop raise and my flop c-bet, which suggests to me that he has AJ (slightly unlikely), 99, TT, JJ, QQ, KK, or AA.  99/TT is the only hand I can realistically expect to fold to a second barrel, AJ/QQ might fold, and KK/AA/JJ don't.  I don't think KK/AA is as unlikely as it might seem, since I can definitely vouch for trapping with KK/AA in position preflop.  Anyways, villain bets, and I fold.  I ask him after the hand if he had QQ and he says he did not have QQ.

About 30 minutes later, I play another big hand OOP.
-Hand #5-
I have AJ in middle position, and open for 25.  Villain is the same guy from the previous hand and he sits to my left.  He and another play call.
Flop comes KQT rainbow.  Given my tight image, people can fully expect me to have hit this flop (and if not, i.e. if I have 88, I still should be expected to c-bet).  As a result, I c-bet 35, and only villain calls.
Turn is a blank club (which puts two clubs on the board).  I fire away again with a 50 bet, "repping" AK/KQ/KJ/etc, and again villain calls.
River is a non-club J, which sucks because it's either a huge action killer or I'm chopping.  I continue with a bet of 75 (trying to make it seem like I'm blocker-betting), and villain raises to 225.  Sure that we're chopping (and consequently, pissed off), I call.  Villain shows 69 of clubs for the lower straight.  A guy to my right asks me why I just called and I said that I was sure villain had an Ace, and that if he didn't, he wouldn't be calling anyways.  Granted, it would have been a downside-less raise, and villain had been extremely loose (sometimes bordering on maniacal), so there was maybe a 5% chance he didn't even realize an Ace would be a higher straight and I could have won an additional couple hundred.  This was definitely a byproduct of my previous hands, both the boat over boat and the AA that got rivered by a two outer.

-Hand #6-
I have ATs in middle position and open for 25.  I get 2 calls, including villain on the button and one of the blinds.
Flop comes AJx with a flush draw.  Villain is enormous stacked (probably almost 2000), and at this point, I have around 800 so we're very deep.  Villain is also extremely aggressive, somewhat loose but very effective.  As a result, I decide to play this hand passively, especially given my image.  I check, villain bets 35, the blind folds, and I call.
Turn is a blank.  I check, villain bets 55, I call.
River is a J that misses the flush draw.  I check again, and villain thinks a really long time, before shaking his head and checking back.  He shows A8, and my T kicker plays.  I'm sure part of the reason he didn't bet the river is because he thought I wasn't that great of a player (which isn't unfounded, because I bought in short stacked and played like a tight beginner); the other part was that I'd checked the early hand with my straight, planning to reraise the river, and he suspected I may have a J (or better).  Given that he thinks his hand has showdown value, I could easily repop a river bet, and he just overall has no idea what I have, he checks behind.  I also may have had to fold a river bet, because my T kicker is pretty bad, so I was definitely happy to see it checked back.

The past hand also demonstrated how well I was running.  I was primarily playing only pocket pairs and AK/AQ/AJs/ATs/suited connectors, and outside of the AK hand that I folded on the turn, I literally hit an A every time I had one.  This includes a couple of times I was dealt A-rag on a blind and still hit an A and won.  Anyways, the last interesting hand of the night:
-Hand #7
I have 55 in late position.  Villain is the same guy from the previous hand (one of two players at the table I would consider demonstratively better at 2-5 than me; the other would be the guy I lost AK to).  He raises UTG to 30.  About 4 of us see the flop.
Flop comes 752 with two hearts.  Villain c-bets 45, and only I call.
Turn is a blank.  Villain bets 75, and I call.
River is a heart.  Villain beats 85, at which point I feel very good about my set even though the flush hit, as I expect super LAG players to be betting big on this river if they hit the flush.  Still, with a stack of almost 1000 behind, I can't afford to raise and get reraised so I call.  Villain says you're good (assuming I have a flush) and I flip over my set.  I have a feeling he had either A7, two pair, or an overpair, and was blocker betting the river, so I'm pretty sure he wouldn't have called a raise anyways.

Anyways, I leave soon afterwards at 12:30, as I was starting to get tired, and I didn't want to play too long with a huge stack, given that the way I was playing was more conducive to short stack play.  I ended up 821 at 2-5, down 465 at 1-2, and overall up only 356 over 12 hours.  However, my 1-2 losses were primarily a result of shitty luck, and while I didn't necessarily optimize my 2-5 winnings, I did find somewhat of a comfort zone against deep-stacked, LAG 2-5 regs by playing tight poker.  I definitely feel like my "ideal" stakes right now are somewhere between 2-5 and 1-2, but that I'm definitely comfortable enough to hang at the adults table now.  (I am somewhat apprehensive about how I'll do once my 2-5 luck runs out though).

Home Game Session 2 (May 27, 2012):
Not much really to say here.  After claiming last time that I feared rake might be higher, I then realized that the host simply has more money to give back since at the casinos, both the house and the dealers take a portion, which means even with 10% rake up to 6 dollars (which is what Charles Town charges), that can add up to 100+ in rake/hour (20-30 hands/hour * $50/hand * 10% rake).  Given that the nights usually go at least 10 hours long (which is long after I leave), they can rake in over $1000, which means they can give back around 300 per night.  This is especially true, since the flips/freerolls they have entice people to come, and their main goal is to simply get a game going.

Anyways, they held a super turbo freeroll at the start of the night, and I maintain that super turbo tournies are extremely exploitable against bad players.  By about the 20th hand, everyone is already short-stacked, but people don't understand short-stack play.  That of course means too much calling preflop with the hopes of post-flop play, too little calling based on pot odds (when you're big blind with 5BB in chips, you should be calling all shoves), and way too little shipping as a result (given how often players fold to ships, you should be even further enticed to ship more often).  Anyways, long story short: won a flip with 88 against 2 overs, won a 60-40 against 2 unders, lost a 60-40 in the same situation, and then chopped $150 each when the other 2 players at 3-handed went all-in against each other and one player ended up with pretty much the same stack as me.

Then, I played 1-2 for about 2-3 more hours, and ended up another 115.  All in all, a +$265 night.




Overall, this was a moderately successful weekend in terms of results, but an even more positive one given the fact that I feel that I've become more comfortable playing 2-5.  I definitely plan on playing more of that in the upcoming weeks (and in Vegas).


-Summary-
Time at 1-2 cash tables: 11.5 hours
1-2 Cash: -$200
Time at 2-5 cash tables: 4 hours
2-5 Cash: +$821
Poker total: +$620
Gas and food: -$30
Net:+$590


-On record career to date-
Time at 1-2 cash tables: 101 hours
1-2 Cash: +$3005
Time at 2-5 cash tables: 17.5 hours
2-5 Cash: +$1530
Total time at cash tables: 118.5 hours
Cash games: +$4535
Time at tournies: 12 hours
Tournies: -$570
Poker total: +$3965
Net: +$3350

Brags: The fact that I routinely leak away chips at 1-2 due to boredom isn't necessarily a good or bad sign.  I can probably only limit my impatience to a certain level, after which I'll always need to account for some leakage.  The fact that it's happening so often in 1-2 suggests that my comfort with those stakes has increased dramatically, and I can start moving on to playing 2-5 more routinely.
Beats: My emotions still are affecting my play, i.e. the donating of probably 100 more than necessary after the AA hand at 1-2, and the failure to raise on the river in a weekly dominant scenario because a J "killed" my action (in reality, that was the only card I was going to win money on...).
Variance: Even while I'm going through some bad luck at the 1-2 tables, I have run insanely hot at 2-5.  I would venture a guess that the 18 hours of 2-5 I've played has to be at least in the 95th percentile in terms of how good someone can run in any 18 hour session.

Monday, May 21, 2012

Charles Town Sessions 11-13 & Home Game Session 1: A Much Needed Confidence Boost

I was on a Dwyane Wade streak.  I'd but up stinkers in three straight games, and people were starting to doubt me, and more importantly, I was starting to doubt myself.  I had a negative $800 swing on one session, and then lost another $340 in a home game, and then finally had only a positive $60 day after 8 hours during my most recent session.  Not only was my profit rate dropping, my profit was dropping.  It's a good thing then that I made most of the losses back then yesterday.  Anyways, on to the sessions.

Charles Town Session 11 (Apr 15, 2012):
Played 1-2 for 5 hours and ended up down $450.  At one point, I was up around $300-400, but through a combination of loose play and missed draws, there was an $800 swing afterwards (i.e. calling an all-in with 77 on a 986 board with enough odds only if you assume villain can only have a set or worse, which he did but that wasn't a given).

Home Game Session 1 (Apr 27, 2012):
There's a guy who hosts all these games (he doesn't play), and he takes rake, like a casino.  The rake might also be high (I don't know) because he still has money left over to 1) provide food, 2) deal flips worth up to hundreds per night (everyone is dealt a hand face-up and the winner wins the pot), and 3) have a $700+ freeroll every few weeks.  Given that I don't participate in the freeroll, the rake could be hurting me.

Anyways, more loose play.  Didn't really play poorly/make identifiable mistakes as I did in the previous Charles Town session, but definitely didn't play optimally.  I hovered around even to up $100, but lost a big hand.  I had AQ and raised preflop.  Flop was QTx with 2 clubs.  One guy leads out, another guy raises to 45, and I reraise for 100 more.  Another guy cold shoves (for about 50 more), the original better folds, and the first raiser calls.  Turn is a club and I'm obviously dead.  In hindsight, I wasn't in a poor spot (both callers had flush draws), but I basically ended up in the best possible scenario (which was having to dodge buttloads of outs) and I could have easily been up against a set.  The first raiser ends up showing K9 of clubs for the second nut flush, and with the gutshot as well, he was clearly going nowhere.

Charles Town Session 12 (May 12, 2012):
Given that it was a Saturday, the 1-2 lines were ridiculously long, so I took my 2-5 seat instead.  There weren't really any interesting hands (that I remember), although I did finally start winning with KK (it helps when the flop gives you another K).  The table also seemed a lot more 1-2ish than normal (meaning, more loose and more passive).  Either that or I've adjusted to 2-5 and am now able to play there.


Anyways, I ended up around 150 after 4.5 hours, and took a dinner break.  With the losing streak I was on, I didn't want to end the night down 400 so I signed on to 1-2 afterwards.  After more missing and what was probably still loose play from me, I ended the night only up 60.


Charles Town Session 13 (May 20, 2012):
Given my poor performance the past few sessions, I made a committed effort to tighten up my game (which has a tendency to loosen as I win).  Long story short, it was successful (it also never hurts to actually hit), and if not for two hands against a very fishy old lady that I played perfectly but unfortunately just lost, I'd have been up over 1100.  I arrived at 1:00, and after about 30 minutes, they opened a new table and called my name.

I sit down with 210, and quickly win a few pots just from raising preflop and c-betting.  I build my stack to around 250+ before the first notable hand of the night.
-Hand #1-
Villain sits to my right with a stack of around 200-250 and is UTG.  He raises preflop to 8 (there have been a lot less action in my recent Charles Town sessions, including sub-$10 preflop raises).  I call with 57, and a total of 5 players see the flop.
Flop comes 754 with two diamonds.  Villain c-bets 50 into a pot of below 40.  I've noticed recently that a popular move for shitty loose players is the small preflop raise with a pocket pair, and then the big flop bet on a flop of all undercards.  Besides, no player, good or bad, leads out with a bet larger than the pot with the nuts/close to it (so in this case, a straight/set).  Clearly, he has the overpair.  With the flush and straight draw on the board and 3 players behind me, each of whom has between 100 and 200, I decide to just shove (since I figure most shitty players don't play 68/63 so I really only am afraid of 44).  Predictably, villain calls, shows 99, and claims that he has to dodge the flush draw.  Both turn and river miss and I'm quickly at around 450.

Over the next hour or so, I collect a few more pots just from c-betting/value-betting made hands on the river.  That puts me at around 500 before the following hand.
-Hand #2-
This is the first of two hands against the fishy old lady that I lost.  She has about 300 before the hand.  I'm dealt AQ in middle position.  I raise preflop to 16, and two players call (including the old lady).
Flop comes Q75 with two clubs and a heart.  I c-bet 25, and only the old lady calls.
Turn comes a 4 of hearts.  I'd already realized by then that the old lady loves her draws (although not to the extent that I realized later), so I decided to "punish" her on the turn with the blank.  I bet 55 and she calls.
River is a non-heart, non-club 9.  I value bet 55 (while I was very confident I was good, the 55 also served as a blocker bet, since had I checked OOP, I'd have to call a river bet anyways).  She calls and flips over 94 of clubs.  That was totally unexpected, but she also didn't really play this particular hand incorrectly (while she did on the next hand against me and numerous other hands throughout the night), outside of the loose preflop range since flush draws have much lower implied odds than straight draws in 1-2, but I'm definitely not in the position to criticize someone's range.  The flop call of the c-bet in position with the flush draw is standard, and even though my turn bet was large, she also picked up 2-pair and trips outs.  She also can't really raise the river given our chip stacks (anything other than a min-raise would pretty much leave her pot-committed to a shove by me).

That pot leave me completely rattled, but I continue to string together a number of small pots.
-Hand #3-
The first villain in the hand is a young talkative guy who seemed to be a good player.  He'd actually thought a while about calling an all-in raise on the turn with KK (including the K of clubs) on a board of Kxxx with 3 clubs.  He ended up spiking a fourth club on the river and scooping the pot.  However, after this hand (and with a large stack), he'd started loosening up dramatically, and he then lost a hand when a guy called both the flop and turn to spike the flush on the river.  Afterwards, he even said he was on tilt and started playing horribly.  This contributes to the following hand (although it doesn't really affect my decision making whatsoever).  Anyways, he has about 300 before the hand.  The second villain is a relative short stack (around 100 before the hand).
I wake up with K5 of spades in the small blind.  Villain #1 raises to 8 and about 5 of us see the flop.
Flop comes Axx with 3 spades.  I check blind.  Villain #1 bets 15.  Villain #2 calls.  In 1-2, I strongly advocate not slow playing strong hands.  At these lower levels, it's not as imperative to disguise one's hand (mainly because people are just dumb), so playing strong hands fast increases the sizes of the pots you win.  As a result, I repop to 45 and both players call.  At this point, I figure I'm against a flush (from Villain #1) and a set/2 pair (from Villain #2).
Turn is a blank.  I bet 75, which is slightly less than 1/3 of Villain #1's remaining stack and puts Villain #2 all-in.  Both players call.
River is a blank.  I decide to value-bet relatively small (to entice smaller flushes to call), and put out 85.  Villain #1 asks for my chip count (which is more than his stack) and shoves the remaining 100 or so of his stack in.  I insta-call and show my nut flush.  After Villain #1 leaves to go to the ATM, Villain #2 claims that Villain #1 had just an ace.  Somehow.  That makes no sense, but I'm not complaining.

About an hour later comes the final interesting hand of the night.
-Hand #4-
Old Fishy lady at this point has a stack of around 400-500 after hitting a number of draws and getting paid off.  I'm dealt TT in middle position and raise to 14.  There are two calls (including the fishy old lady) and a short stack shoves for 7 more.  I unfortunately can't reraise and 4 of us see the flop with the short stack all-in.
Flop comes T86 rainbow.  I bet 25 into the sidepot (with the main pot at around 80).  Old fishy lady calls.
Turn is a 9 that puts a flush draw out there.  I now bet 45 (which should give me a much clearer picture of what I'm up against).  Fishy lady raises to 100.  At this point, I'm totally befuddled, because nothing reasonable has me beat.  Anyways, given that I have 10 outs even in the worst case scenario (and with huge implied stacks), I call.
River is a blank.  I check, fishy lady bets another 100, and I fold face up.  She shows 72! for the straight.  Now, not only did she play 72 (she played way too many hands preflop all night), she called the flop with a gutshot (and without any reason to expect to be paid off if the gut shot hits, because there would be four to a straight on the board).  Furthermore, she raised way too small on the turn.  Given that a raise of any size basically reveals her hand, she needs to raise larger to make sure I don't have odds to chase a boat.  I ask her after the hand whether I'd have been able to win her entire stack had the board paired and she says she doesn't know what she'll do until it actually happens.  I think I would have, and I'd have been up 1400 at the end of the night had it happened.

-Summary-
Time at 1-2 cash tables: 18.5 hours
1-2 Cash: -$140
Time at 2-5 cash tables: ~4.5 hours
2-5 Cash: +$150
Poker total: +$10
Gas and food: -$60
Net:-$50


-On record career to date-
Time at 1-2 cash tables: 89.5 hours
1-2 Cash: +$3205
Time at 2-5 cash tables: 13.5 hours
2-5 Cash: +$710
Total time at cash tables: 103 hours
Cash games: +$3915
Time at tournies: 12 hours
Tournies: -$570
Poker total: +$3345
Net: +$2760

Brags: I've still got it.
Beats: In addition to tightening up in general, I need to stop calling all-ins with draws and questionable odds.
Variance: It's amazing what a positive $740 session can do for one's confidence.

Saturday, April 7, 2012

Charles Town Session 10: New Daily Net Record

I've been a little disheartened with work recently, so I decided to head to Charles Town for a second consecutive week (winning at poker makes me feel better about myself).  I generally would prefer not to play on Sundays, so given that the lines have gotten extremely long on Saturdays, I decided to head there in the morning.  I got there at noon and began playing at 12:30.

At my first table, there's pretty much only 4 players that I get involved with.  There's an old friendly guy to my left, and he's clearly horrible (he plays stuff like J5).  Two seats to my left is an old lady, who's also clearly bad, as she ended up making certain moves just to "push back" against the LAG players at the table.  The two LAG players sit to the old lady's left.  The first is pretty bad, in that he's a lot more loose than agressive, and overrates his hands at all stages.  The second is really the only other decent player at the table, and he's a typical young LAG player.  Anyways, I get into the action almost immediately:

-Hand #1-
I'm dealt A4 clubs on the big blind with a stack between 250 and 300 before the hand.  Villain is the decent LAG kid, and he has me covered at this point.  He raises to 12, I call, and 4 players see the flop.
Flop is A65 with one club.  Villain bets 25, only I call.
Turn is a club that doesn't affect the straight draws.  Villain bets 60, and given that I think I'm behind, I only call.
River is another blank.  I check, with the intention that I'm most likely folding to a river bet, villain thinks for a while, and checks.  I act like I think I lost the hand and flip over my A with a weak kicker.  Villain mucks.  I think he may have had a pocket pair between middle and top pair, and he believed he had showdown equity over missed straight draws.

Both of the LAG players have been raising preflop a lot, which definitely affects the way I play the following hand:
-Hand #2-
I'm dealt AJo on my straddle.  Villain (same villain as Hand #1) raises to 16.  Only I call.  At this point, the effective chip stacks preflop are about 350, as I believe he still has me covered.
Flop comes KTx rainbow.  Villain bets 20, I call.  If the villain were a tighter player, I wouldn't be calling here.  I obviously have my gutshot to the nuts, but against this villain, an ace is almost definitely good, and a J might be too.
Turn is a Q.  Villain bets 25, I raise to 75 (to pot build, as he's guaranteed to call this raise as long as he doesn't have total air), he calls.
River is an A (an action killer as there's 4 to a straight on the board).  I bet 80 (to try to make it look like I'm betting something like two pair that's afraid of the straight), but villain folds (he likely had a lower two pair, which doesn't beat anything by the river).

My stack hovers around 400 before the following hand:
-Hand #3-
I have TT in the small blind.  Villain #1 is the bad LAG player, and he raises to 16, I think about re-popping but I'm not good enough to play TT heads-up OOP.  5 players see the flop, including the old lady.  Both villains have between 300 and 350 before the hand.
Flop comes AT9 with 2 clubs.  Villain #2 (the old lady) leads out for 15, and Villain #1 raises to 60.  I usually advocate for never shipping on the flop, but given that I'm OOP against two players with a flush and a straight draw out there, one of the draws is bound to hit, but I have no idea what the likelihood is that one of the two players has that draw.  This is especially true since if I call, the old lady should call with any draw.  Consequently, I ship (I have them both covered), and both villains fold.  The old lady claims afterwords to have had a flush draw and that she definitely would have called had I not shipped.

My stack is around 500 now, and I pretty much have everyone covered now.
-Hand #4-
I have 69 diamonds in late position.  Someone raises to 12, I call, and 4 players see the flop.
Flop is 85x with the 8 and 5 of diamonds.  Villain (the old lady) bets 25 from the big blind, only I call.
Turn is the 7 of diamonds. Villain bets 15. I call.  She's clearly afraid of the diamonds as she lowered her bet, so I'm hoping she's got 2-pair/a set that spikes the river boat/quads (quads would be awesome because of the bad beat jackpot).
River is a blank.  Villian bets 15 again, and I raise to 60.  She mucks instantly and I make the obligatory straight flush show.

Now, my luck is just getting ridiculous.  Shortly thereafter, is more proof of this:
-Hand #5-
I have 66 on the button.  The bad LAG player raises to 15, I think about repopping (simply to get a feel for his hand) but decide that I'll play my 66 as a set chasing hand.
Flop is KK9.  Everyone checks to me, I bet, and only the player to my left calls.  This should be a warning sign since while he plays a lot of bad hole cards, he doesn't call preflop raises with them.  This ultimately doesn't matter much because he has only 30 more behind, but it is somewhat troublesome that my immediate reaction was to bet the flop.
Turn is a 6 that bails me out.  We both check.
River is a blank.  I put him all in for about 30 more, he's forced to call, and I apologize for spiking the boat.

Shortly after, the two LAG players (who also happen to be 2 of the 3 other relatively big stacks at the table) decide to leave for dinner, but they don't know the dinner break rule and leave their stacks at the table.  As a result, the table will be playing 8-handed max for the next hour, and since the rest of the players are relatively small stacked and much tighter (i.e. no action), I decide to table change.  I move my stack of 700 to my new table, and notice immediately that there's going to be a lot more action at the new table as there's a number of big stacks.  Unfortunately, I go card dead for a while, but that gives me more time to study the players at the table, who I realize, generally speaking, tend to overrate their hands.
-Hand #6-
I have AJ in late position.  Villain raises to 6 UTG, I repop to 21, and he calls.  Heads-up to the flop.
Jxx with a flush draw.  Villain checks, I bet 25, he ships for 116 more.  I can't see him having anything that beats me (overpairs don't play this way preflop, and while a set is possible, sets usually want to milk some more).  I reluctantly call, and he shows QJ.
Turn and river miss the Q, and I finally win a pot on my new table.

-Hand #7-
I have T9 of clubs in late position.  I plan on raising to 12, but villain immediately to my right takes my move away by raising to 12 himself.  I call, and there's three plays to the flop.
Flop comes ATx with 2 clubs.  (I flop middle pair with a flush draw).  Villain c-bets 20, only I call.
Turn is another T.  Villain bets 60, I think he has a big ace, which I think will shut down if the club hits the river, and I can still rep a flush draw that's trying to force a big ace to fold, so I ship for the rest of his stack (about 200).  He thinks about folding, but calls and shows T9 of spades.  I'm freerolling and hope for a club.
River is a spade.  Chop it up.

I'm talking to the guy from the hand about how we played.  He says he was trying to rep an ace, which I bought, and I tell him that I thought he had AK, and that he would shut down if a club hit the river, which is why I ship.  As we're still talking, the very next hand occurs:
-Hand #8-
I have K9 of spades late position.  Same villain from the previous hand raises to 7 (and he says out loud that this is called a "pot-building move"), and we're still talking about the previous hand.  8 players see the flop.
Flop is JTx with 2 spades and a heart.  Player two seats to my right leads into villain for 20.  Villain calls, I reraise to 60 with my second-nut flush draw and gutshot, a player two seats to my left cold calls, and both players to my right call as well.
Turn is a heart.  Checks to me.  I look at the player to my left, and notice he has only 25 left, which obviously sucks.  I also decide I can't check the turn here, because my hand becomes face up and it's obvious I'm drawing (given how strongly I'd played on the flop, I have to have a made hand or a big draw).  I decide to make a smaller bet as a result (which also helps build the pot in case I hit the river), and bet 55.  The other plus about betting is that if the player to my left is also drawing (which he's been especially known to do), then my K-high might have showdown equity if I can get the other two players to fold.  However, they both call.
River is the Q of hearts.  Original better on the flop checks, villain ships for 267, and that surprises the hell out of me.  He clearly hit the river, which means he either has a straight or a flush.  At first, I'm undecided, because both AK and a flush beat me.  However, villain is not a horrible player, and more importantly, he opened preflop to 7 and claimed it was a pot building move.  That essentially eliminates AK.  Furthermore, since he was clearly drawing from the flop, that means he has to have 98 or Q9 on the flop.  Since the river Q completes the flush, he also can't have Q9.  So he has 98, and now the question is simply whether he also has the flush.  At this point, there's obviously smaller than a 33% chance he has the flush (33% assumes he only plays suited 89's which is clearly not the case, although there's also some chance that 89 w/o the flush doesn't ship, but that's probably not that significant), and I have more than enough pot odds.  I call.  He seems confident and says he has a straight.  Now, I know I'm good and show him the bad news with my higher straight.  This may have been the biggest pot I've been involved in at 1-2 (probably totaling around 1000 before rake), and I scoop in my biggest win of about 600.


-Summary-
Time at 1-2 cash tables: 4.5 hours
1-2 Cash: +$1003
Poker total: +$1003
Gas and food: -$15
Net: ~+$990

-On record career to date-
Time at 1-2 cash tables: 71 hours
1-2 Cash: +$3345
Time at 2-5 cash tables: 9 hours
2-5 Cash: +$560
Total time at cash tables: 80 hours
Cash games: +$3905
Time at tournies: 12 hours
Tournies: -$570
Poker total: +$3335
Net: +$2810

Brags: $1000+!
Beats: I'm grasping at straws here...  I keep getting headaches after my recent sessions, even though they've been pretty short.  Either I'm still getting stressed (which shouldn't be the case, and hopefully isn't), or I simply need my daily nap.
Variance: I was a 3 outs away from just a normal day at the office (Q of spades might not get me the same action).

Sunday, April 1, 2012

Charles Town Sessions 8 Box Score and 9 Recap

Charles Town Session 8:

I lost $290 in about 6 hours of 1-2 four Saturdays ago (Mar 4).  I ran poorly to start, and then played very impatiently.  As a result, I realized I still have a lot to improve about my impatience and demeanor.  I unfortunately think of Charles Town sessions as discrete benchmarks, meaning when I'm down, I try too hard to make it back to even.  In other words, bad cards leads to bad play which leads to further bad play.  I was actually down 500+ at one point, but played much better after a dinner break.

Charles Town Session 9:

Today, I played another session (after a four week break to reset) and won $450 in 3.5 hours of 1-2.  I ran poorly to start again, so I superstitiously changed my green chips ($25 each) into red ones ($5 each) since I played with mostly green chips last session too.  Almost immediately, I went on a huge heater, as I won 4 straight significantly sized hands in a row (a solid player at the table was commenting about my "turkey" after the third hand).

-Hand #1-
I'm dealt KQ on my straddle and call a preflop raise from the one good player at the table (4 of us see the flop).  I'll fold KQo in some situations, but this table was extremely passive so I could easily play pot control if I hit a K or Q.
Flop is Kxx rainbow.  I check dark and everyone checks behind.
Turn is a Q that puts a flush draw on the board.  I bet 30, and the good player calls.
River is another blank.  I value bet 45, and he calls after some deliberation.  I show KQ and he's very surprised and says good hand.

-Hand #2-
I'm dealt AA on the button and reraise a very small open of 7.  I actually get cold called by both blinds.  Flop is 445 with two diamonds and the big blind leads into me for 35, which is about 1/6 of his stack (he has the small blind covered and I have them both covered).  I figure I'm way ahead with the paired board, and since a flush draw will also have two overcards, it's almost guaranteed to call any raise from me.  So with position, I decide to call, reevaluate on the turn if a diamond hits, and punish a flush draw if the turn misses.  Surprisingly, small blind also calls.
Turn is a non-diamond Q.  Big blind again bets out for about 50.  I posture for a while, know that only QQ beats me, and ship.  Small blind folds, and big blind thinks for a long time (which makes it obvious to me he has a pocket pair and only two outs).  He calls and shows JJ.
River misses and I almost double up.

-Hand #3-
I raise with KJ clubs and get 3 callers.
Flop is Qxx with 2 clubs.  I c-bet and get one caller.
Turn is a non-club T.  I bet again and he folds.

-Hand #4-
I limp on the hi-jack with 68o and about 6 of us see the flop of 753.
Small blind leads out and only I call.
Turn is a blank.  He bets again and I call.
River is the 9.  He bets, I raise, he folds instantly.

This stretch basically leaves me at about 850, and I slowly build it up to 992 before what I tell myself will be the last hand (since I have 2 in change for a limp).

-Hand #5-
I limp middle position with K-diamonds, Q hearts.  About 6 players see the flop.
Flop comes T63 all diamonds.  One of the blinds bets 10, I float (hoping there's no other callers), but one more guy calls.
Turn is a diamond.  The blind is visibly frustrated and checks.  I check behind, already telling myself that if the guy behind me bets then he has to have the A of diamonds.  He does just that by betting 25, but I don't have the discipline to fold, so I call.  (This isn't the worst scenario because he still COULD have had something like a pair with a lower diamond on the flop).
River is a blank.  I check, and he bets 35.  I announce how bad of a player I am for not folding on the turn (since he probably has the A of diamonds at least 80% of the time).  I tell him Merry Christmas and call.  He shows A4 with the nut flush.

I think through this hand for the about two more hands, and donate about 10 more dollars, which leaves me at 910 (after initially buying in for a net of 460) when I decide to leave.

-Summary-
Time at 1-2 cash tables: 9.5 hours
1-2 Cash: +$160
Poker total: +$160
Gas and food: ~-$30
Net: +$130

-On record career to date-
Time at 1-2 cash tables: 66.5 hours
1-2 Cash: +$2340
Time at 2-5 cash tables: 9 hours
2-5 Cash: +$560
Total time at cash tables: 75.5 hours
Cash games: +$2900
Time at tournies: 12 hours
Tournies: -$570
Poker total: +$2330
Net: +$2140

Brags: I maximized EV with AA for once.
Beats: Still need to work on being more patient.
Variance: I went from having another card-dead session to having a great session in a span of 4 hands.

Monday, February 27, 2012

When getting caught with a hand in the bluffing jar can be a good thing

Charles Town Session 7:

Yesterday, I went with Joe to Charles Town once again.  We actually got massages in the morning first, and consequently, were actually able to hit the road earlier than usual.  We arrived at 2:15, which had been early enough, but things looked ominous when we first saw the throng of people outside of the poker room.  Yes, somehow by 2:15, the line had grown to 200 people.

Had I gone by myself, I might have just left (a 200-person waiting list equates to over 3 hours).  However, I felt bad about dragging Joe out here so we instead just chilled for 3 hours.  We also realized that apparently, there was a $300+ buy-in tournament that had been running all day (with about 70 entrants, that's a $10k first prize), which might explain partly why the list was so long (65 people had busted out so that could be an additional 50+ players on the list).  Still, that doesn't explain everything, and perhaps, people have all adjusted like I have, and the new 2:30 might be something like 11:00.   Anyways, I didn't ask whether this is a new weekly occurrence, but if it is, it's probably not a good thing as I might have to start making overnight trips on Friday.  After watching a bit of the final table, our names were finally called at around 5:30.

The first thing I noticed when sitting down was the number of big stacks at the table.  There was probably nobody intentionally playing short-stacked (i.e. buying in for less than 200), and there were about 4-5 stacks of at least 500.  This can be both a good thing (more opportunity, as it can be like playing 2-5 with worse players) and a bad thing (if the players are in fact significantly better).  From the hands I'll detail, it was clearly more of the former.

After sitting down with 200, I quickly lose about 50, add on 100 more, before the first interesting hand of the night.
-Hand #1-
I'm in the cutoff, and almost the full tables limps to me.  I wake up with JJ and raise to 16.  About 5 players call, including two villains, one in the big blind (who has me covered), and another in middle position (who has a stack of around 150 before the hand).
Flop is QJT rainbow.  Everyone checks to the villain in middle position, who leads out with a bet of 30.  Now, in hindsight, there's a couple of problems here.  One, I hadn't seen how the players at the table play, but generally speaking, I don't expect players to limp middle-to-late position with AK (but I should definitely be less sure of this given my lack of info).  Two, a bet of 30 into a pot of 80 is extremely suspicious, which is something I didn't pay particular attention to during the hand.  It's either a bet by someone extremely strong (i.e. AK/K9/98) or by someone extremely weak (i.e. KQ).  Still, I know that I'm never folding a set in position on the flop to one bet, and that I'm most likely paying middle-position villain off regardless even if I only call his flop bet (he'd have no more than 100 behind and the pot is at least 140 after my call).  Now, I have to consider some of the other possibilities.  For example, if he has KQ or some other hand I can beat (maybe two pair or AQ), what are the chances he'll pay me off, either on the flop or turn?  I think they're pretty likely, at least enough to balance out the scenario where he has a straight and I need to pair the board.  As a result, I'm resigned to risking 150 against villain.  So why do I raise instead of call?  Well, there are 4 other players in the hand, and villain's initial bet was small enough for a king/ace to chase, and if there's enough callers, perhaps even pairs with backdoors.  By raising, I can obtain information about the other hands in the pot.  I don't see any player with AK calling my raise (especially since it isn't absurdly large), which means I can actually get out of the hand if one of the original checkers reraises me.  In fact, what happens is that the villain in the big blind calls, the other players fold to the other villain, who ships.  Once the villain in the big blind calls my raise, I know he's weak (meaning not the nuts), and I'd been representing a big hand the entire time, which means I think I can get him off K9/98.  Furthermore, if in fact both villains have a straight, then I get great odds to chase a board pair.  However, the biggest difference is in fact if the villain in middle position has something that I have beat (i.e. two pair).  By reshipping (which, admittedly, is only about 100 on top), I have a good chance of forcing out the best hand.  Consequently, I pretty much instantly re-shove and the villain in the big blind correctly folds his K9 in fear of me.  However, villain in middle position does indeed have AK, and I'm a 35:65 dog.
Unfortunately, both the turn and the river miss.  There's a number of reasons I think my play during this hand is flawless.  1) I can never fold on the flop, regardless of the table.  If it's a fishy table, then enough players will pay me off with worse hands simply because they think they're still good.  If the table is actually much more skilled, then there's enough of a chance that someone is bluffing/semi-bluffing (either him or me) that I'll still get paid off enough by worse hands (i.e. I could easily be raising with KQ and two pair might not be able to fold).  2) By raising preflop, reraising a flop bet, and then shoving on top of an all-in, the other players have to fold all non-nut hands.  This means that I'm often able to fold out the best hand with the second best hand (meaning the short-stacked villain has two pair/TT/KQ/AQ).  3) The worst case scenario is if I get called by QQ, but that's extremely unlikely, especially at the 1-2 tables, because the players love to "protect" their big pocket pairs by raising big preflop (as opposed to something like AK, which they're not willing to invest much money in until they hit an A or K).  So the second worst case scenario is what actually happened, where short-stacked villain has a straight and I'm heads up against him.  Given that I can't fold the flop, I'm still losing at least the 30 (assuming I can fold later).  In other words, I ended up risking 100 more (which is what the villain had behind) for a chance to win 250.  Even in that case, I have pot odds (I'm getting 2.5:1 on my money when I'm less than a 2:1 dog).  Actually, if I'd simply realized this earlier, I could have saved so much analysis...  Anyways, if I actually get called by more hands, then I'm getting even better odds.

The rest of this recap wasn't finished, and it definitely won't get now (updated April 2).

-Summary-
Time at 1-2 cash tables: 4.5 hours
1-2 Cash: +$292
Poker total: +$292
Gas and food: ~-$15
Net: ~ +$280

-On record career to date-
Time at the 1-2 cash tables: 57 hours
1-2 Cash: +$2180
Time at the 2-5 cash tables: 9 hours
2-5 Cash: +$560
Total time at cash tables: 66 hours
Cash games: +$2740
Time at the tournies: 12 hours
Tournies: -$570
Poker total: +$2170
Net: +$2010

Brags:  Another session of essentially mistake-free 1-2 play.
Beats:  While I'm making a lot of correct decisions (or specifically, even more than before), a lot of these decisions are made using gut feelings that are based more or less on mathematical principles but not on actual calculations.  As a result, there's a lot of potential error in my "gut feelings."  Specifically, I need to learn to think 2-3 moves in ahead, particularly in terms of how my current actions affect my pot odds on future streets and in terms of how they relate to my opponents' odds.  This will help me optimize both my calling/raising decisions and my betting/raising sizes.
Variance:  JJ failed me for once (although to be fair to them, I still hit my set).