I'd originally decided to go back home to the Bay Area for a week, primarily in Reno/Lake Tahoe to ski and play a little poker, but since the ski trip got cancelled, I've been spending about 6 hours a day at Bay 101 in San Jose. Apparently, it's not actually a Casino (since I guess you're not allowed to have those in California unless on Native American soil), as there are no slots, just card games (like poker, blackjack, some game called baccarat...). I've played 5 days so far, every day besides Christmas day. The weird thing about Bay 101 is that the no-limit games have button blinds, so it's either 1-2-2 or 2-3-5 (where the button posts 1/2, the small blind posts 2/3, and the big blind posts 2/5, and the "limps" in the 1-2-2 games are for 4). Furthermore, there seems to be some pretty small max buyins for each game (200 for the 1-2-2, 500 for the 2-3-5). Most of my days have been relatively uninteresting (hence, no update until tonight), but I'll briefly recap those sessions before delving into today's hands in more detail.
Day 1:
I played the 1-2-2 game for about 6 hours. I didn't realize just how small the stacks ended up being so the games had very little action (lots of beginners who almost never ever bet, and very rarely fold to reasonable value bet bluffs). I ended up playing at a table with a lot of these noobs, but unfortunately, also an extremely LAG player. He was fun to play and talk with, but I have a lot of problems with tables with one super aggressive player and the rest calling stations. Apparently, the guy owns his own tech company and he usually/often plays 10-20 NL (with the biggest hand he'd ever won being a 20K pot with a straight flush against an Ace-high flush). I asked him why he was ruining my day by playing at the 1-2 table, and he was like, "It's Christmas Eve, I don't want to ruin my Christmas." Well, fine, just go ruin mine instead.
The rest of the table didn't seem to understand that he was actually really good. They just saw him play and raise lots of marginal hands and hit two pair/straights/flushes against them and just assumed the reason he was winning was because he was running so well. He ended up only leaving with around 500, but he ended up getting sucked out with top 2 against Aces when the board paired. Anyways, the whole point of this description of the LAG player is that I ended up playing super passive against everyone, and it threw me off my entire game (it didn't help to be card dead and calling off way too much money). Again, I need to learn to adjust when there are drastically different playing styles at my table. I ended up down 250 after the 6 hours, at one point up 200 and at another down 350. Definitely not one of my better days in terms of my actual controllable performance. I'm sure there were at least a few interesting hands from the night, but nothing noteworthy so I've forgotten them all by now.
Day 2:
I realized at the end of my first day that the players in the 1-2-2 game were actually pretty soft (meaning I should be up at the end of the majority of my sessions) but that my EV/hour probably wasn't that high because there's less action at the Bay 101 1-2-2 games than usual 1-2 games. Anyways, I played around 4 hours on the night and ended up around 170. Nothing really interesting to note otherwise about the session.
Day 3:
Remember the session that was the hottest I'd ever run? Well, previous session, here's your silver medal. I had the best combination of outside factors for this session: 1) good hole cards, 2) great flops, 3) no suck outs and a significant coin flip win (because it started my hot streak and gave me my big stack), and 4) horrible loose and spewy opponents (3! of them to be exact). Nothing much happened for the first 10 minutes after I bought in for the max 200.
-Hand #1-
Villain is an old lady (at least 50-60) who really doesn't seem to know how to play poker at all but seemed to have way too much money to spend (almost like she convinced her rich husband to let her have some fun). I'd saw her play some marginal hands aggressively preflop (any Ace-rag, KT, etc) and showdown without pairs. So that's something to take into account in this hand.
Anyways, she's UTG and raises to 8 (which is an extremely small raise at this table, especially for her). I wake up with AK suited and raise to around 30 after a call. Everyone folds to villain who ships (and has me covered slightly). I think there's no way she's "good" enough to raise so small with AA or KK to trap, so I'm convinced she has a low pair (or even better, a worse A), so I call. She shows 66. Board ends up showing two pair (higher than a 6) so my A kicker wins. Given all the information I had, I'm convinced that my call is very profitable (she's much more likely to have a worse A than AA/KK).
She rebuys and then two more horrible players sit down, one being some guy who looked like a hobo and overrated good hole cards post flop (i.e. AK is a good hand regardless what the flop is) and another being some middle-aged Indian dude (30-40 years old) who began raising and bluffing literally almost every single hand (it probably took him about 10 hands to bust out of 3 buyins). Through a combination of good cards and bad opponents elsewhere at the table as well (just not to the extent of the 3 that have been noted), I'd already built my stack to an overwhelming big stack (something around 600-700). Then come two interesting hands (probably separated by about 20-30 minutes).
-Hand #2-
Bad Indian player is the villain. I'd already seem him raise the last 3-4 hands preflop and showdown horrible hole cards, so I'm sure he'll do the same again (and I'd rather it get limped 6-way then called for 20 6-way). As a result, I limp UTG with red JJ. After a couple more limps, villain predictably raises to 25. Big blind calls and I repop to 65. Only villain and big blind call and they each have around 200 behind.
Flop is KQx with two spades. Big blind checks. I think this is a perfect time to check-fold here and still maintain control of the hand. Villain is definitely the type of player to continue betting (if checked to) as long he's still the aggressor in the hand. Otherwise, he'll probably take a free card if he can get one, and he has to be vaguely aware of 1) his table image (meaning it wouldn't be unreasonable for someone to expect him to bet as long as he's checked to), and 2) that KK and QQ are very much in my range and are hands (given the chip stacks) are trying to extract allins on this hand. In other words, I expect him to bet if he has a K or Q, but he'll almost definitely take the free card with any other hand (especially a lower pair). Predictably (and luckily), villain checks.
Turn is the 10 of spades, putting 3 to a flush on the board (and giving me the open-ender). Big blind checks. I'm confident villain at least doesn't have the flush because he's definitely betting the flush draw on the flop. Big blind might but if he does, it's definitely a low one, and I think he's betting the turn. I bet small, about 70 (appearing to commit myself to the pot either way, and I probably am if villain raises but I might fold if big blind does). Villain makes a speech about how he thinks I have the A of spades so he folds. Big blind also insta-mucks. Somehow, my red JJ survived the KQT board with 3 spades.
-Hand #3-
Villain is the hobo and he's in late position. Despite being obviously bad, he'd built his stack from around 100 to 250. I've straddled every time in the 1-2-2 games to induce action (unless my table has a surprisingly large number of aggressive players) and this is one of those hands. A very tight player (who's also short stacked and very readable) opens for 15. Villain calls, I see Q7 (I actually don't remember if it was suited or not, but I do remember it being a very loose call, so it was probably not).
Flop comes 775. I bet small, around 20, fully expecting the preflop raiser to raise, allowing me to potentially trap both players. He doesn't disappoint and puts in around 50 of his remaining 80 or so. Villain cold shoves for 250. I'm thinking, the only only hand I'm at all worried about is A7. He's loved his Ace-rags all night, but definitely isn't even remotely good enough to realize that a hand like 75 is probably more playable. Still, I wouldn't be surprised if he had 78 or an overpair, and I only need to be 50% sure that he doesn't have A7 for this to be a profitable call. After tanking for a really long time (somewhat purposely, because while it's slightly favorable for my EV if preflop raiser calls, I still don't want to have to dodge more cards), I somewhat reluctantly call and show my Q7. Villain flips over AK (before seeing my hand), as if he's confident he's ahead. He's drawing very thin at this point and the turn blank ends the suspense.
I ended the night at 987. I remember the exact number because I'm convinced I gave away 15 bucks. When I was stacking my chips to leave, a short stack had moved his chips to my seat and I inadvertently started collecting his chips as well. Right before I'd decided to leave, I remember counting my chips at 1002 (significant because I'd never left a table with more than 1000). The guy's like, "Hey why are you taking my chips," and I'm totally confused at this point and ask, how much did you have, and someone at the table says "around 105." So I take out 105 and give it to him, before realizing that I probably gave him too much. It really is only 15 bucks, but I get really annoyed at stuff like this because my obliviousness and naivete has cost me many times. Plus, I still have never left a table with 1000+ (this is somewhat significant, because at 3 different sessions, I'd at one point had over 1000, with one of them occurring tonight). My almost 800 dollar winnings on the night surpass my previous personal high of around 600 (which has occurred multiple times).
Day 4:
I decided to enter the 105+15 tournament at Bay 101 at 9:30 in the morning. 120 or so players ended up buying in, with 12 players making the money. I pretty much played perfectly (making correct calls, shoving opportunistically) but ultimately lost to lady luck. I actually started off poorly, as I leaked away about 30% of my 10k starting stack getting c-bets picked off early. Once I got to around 6k, with the blinds at that point at around 300-600, I'd open-shoved with QT, got called by 9's and doubled up on the coin flip. Much later in the tourny (short stacked again, as I was never more than a middling stack), I won another flip shoving 9's into a big stack who had AK. However, I ended up losing a pretty significant sized pot when my TT was called by a short-stack without looking and another player. I bet my TT on 3 undercards (and a club draw), the other player folded, the 3rd flush card came, and the blind short stack somehow turned over two clubs. On my crippling hand, I began with about 10x in the big blind, small blind shoved (with a slightly smaller stack), I correctly called with A7 (he had K5), and he hit his K. Left with less than 2 big blinds, I could only win 1 all-in and busted in 25th.
Day 5:
I entered the 105+15 tourny again. I ran well from the start and was able to build up to a moderately big stack for much of the tourny. Unfortunately, I ran into a couple of dumbasses my last table, who apparently don't realize that 1) there's no utility in semi-bluffing/bluffing me off a better hand when an all-in hand clearly still has them beat, and 2) there actually is utility in checking all the way to maximize the probability of knocking out the short stack.
-Hand #4-
I'm the biggest stack at the table, but not overwhelmingly so. I have maybe 25k in chips, while the second biggest stack has about 20k. Blinds are maybe 400-800 with some ante. I'm UTG and raise small with 33, to something like 1800 (the table was way too tight with blinds so big so I was hoping to steal the blinds and antes; this may have been a mistake but that's a story for another day). Dumb villain calls in middle position with about 15k behind, and short-stacked villain shoves for about 6k. I tank, and decide to call. I thought that if I were to call, there would be no way dumb villain would still call. And this was my mistake. I can't assume dumb villain would play optimally. Besides, if he only flatted my raise for about 1/6 of his stack, there's no way he's calling my shove. This way, I can get him to fold hands like 66/77, assuming big blind has overs. So in other words, I can make an argument in hindsight for either calling or re-shoving but not actually for flatting. Perhaps I should have folded, but big blind was so short stacked that he's probably shoving any two cards 10 or higher, meaning a big portion of his range is flipping with me (flipping of course often means I'm a 55/45 favorite), which is why I decided to call. What I should have realized though, is that there's such a small chance that dumb villain was trapping with a big pair that he's not calling me with anything less than AK/AA/KK (QQ/JJ/TT aren't trapping). In other words, I should have reshoved. Sure, I might be losing EV since the villains could have had overlapping overs, but given that I'm OOP in the side pot, I can never know if dumb villain ever hits his over. Anyways, flop comes T64 (or something like that) with 2 clubs. I check, dumb villain shoves, and I'm like, fine you hit your over. Instead, he shows AQ of clubs. What I was especially miffed about is that by shoving here, he's trying to get a marginally better hand of mine to fold (like 33). However, there's very hands that big blind villain can have that AQ currently beats (if a club hits, he beats me as well, so we should only care about if the club misses). AJ, KQ, KJ, and QJ are probably the only hands dumb villain currently has beat (short stack wasn't going to shove a weak A into a raiser and a caller, not with how tight he was playing). Furthermore, while dumb villain has 50% equity in the pot vs. me heads-up (meaning in a normal scenario, shoving isn't bad for him), he can easily get max value if a club does hit (i.e. if I theoretically had AK and the K of clubs hits, or if my small pair hits a set with a club). I'm also clearly not betting the turn unless I hit my overcard or set so dumb villain can probably see all 3 streets for free. I just see no benefit for dumb villain shipping the flop, while he could easily be missing out on value since I'm always folding unless I flopped a set (if I have AT, I'm not checking). And if I did flop a set, dumb villain only has around 35% equity, and he can see the turn for free, since I'm almost guaranteed to be betting the turn, regardless if a club hits or not. Of course, a non 3 hits the turn, and the river is a blank (non-Q, non-club). Big blind villain has AK and survives because dumb villain knocked the best hand out of the hand.
-Hand #5-
Not soon after, I raise middle position with AQ, which puts a very small short stack all-in, and I get one additional caller from the big blind. Flop is 3 blanks. Big blind checks, and I check behind. Turn is another blank. Big blind points at me, so I check, but instead, once he sees my check, he shoves. I call the floor judge, and apparently, pointing does not equate to checking. (The discussion here isn't whether the floor rules are consistent, because big blind had been pointing to check the entire time anyways.) Anyways, I'm forced to fold and big blind triumphantly flips over 7-high. River makes a flush, which the short stack has, so everything is moot, but had the river missed the flush, the short stack still had the big blind beat with a higher high-card (but obviously lower than my A-high), so again, I would have gotten screwed by a dumbass trying to bluff me out of nothing. This is even worse because there's LITERALLY no way big blind's 7-high currently had the short stack beat, because not only would many of the worse preflop hands have hit a pair, there's no way short stack (who had been folding the entire time, even with a stack of 2x the big blind) calls with worse than a 7-high.
The horrendous play at that table puts my slightly on tilt, and not soon after, I raise with A4 of diamonds on the cutoff into 2 small stacks and a big stack (why I raised small, so if the big stack shoves, I fold). Short stacked small blind calls (he happens to be the dumbass in Hand #5). Flop comes 865 with 1 diamond. Pot is around 8k at the moment. Villain shoves for about 10k. At this point, I have around 16k if I fold. I figured that being a medium stack at this point in the tournament isn't that significantly better than being a short stack, while being a big stack (>25k) is huge. I figure I have at least 7 outs (3 aces and 4 7's), which equates to at least 30% equity. Given how stupidly villain acted in the previous hand, I might actually still be ahead. So I figure, with villain's distribution of hands, it might be a right call for me in terms of plain EV, but even more so given how much more utility I assign to being big stack instead of medium stack vs. being medium stack instead of short stack. So I call. He shows Q8, and I miss the turn and river. In hindsight, the previous hand skewed my judgment over the probability villain is bluffing, so assuming he's hit his pair and with only a 30% equity, I should easily fold. Instead, I get crippled, and after losing JT vs. 88 (shoving UTG with 6x with almost any 2 cards) and missing my J and T, I'm eliminated in around 30th place.
Afterwards, I decide to play a few more hours at the cash games. Both the 1-2-2 and 2-3-5 games have long lines, so I sign up for both. My 2-3-5 spot gets called first, so I decide to play 2-5/2-3-5 for the first time in my life.
I buy-in for 300 (min is 200, max is 500). The most immediate realization I have is that there is so much action at the 2-3-5 tables, as the majority of the players are LAG. On one early hand, a pretty good player called the flop, bet the turn into two players (including me, the original flop better), and then shoved the river and shows bottom pair (which the other caller obviously could beat, but I couldn't as I missed both my flush and gutshot outs). From this point on, I'll refer to him as the Bluffer, as he's involved in many of the interesting hands from the session. I'm put completely off my game by the action and the overall frequency of bluffs and semi-bluffs. This leads to the following hand.
-Hand #6-
There are about 3-4 limps to me in late position. I have A3 suited and I limp as well. 6-7 players see a flop of A63 with 2 diamonds. Big blind bets 10 (into a pot of 30-40), 2 players call, I make it 40 (this is my first mistake, the stacks are so big that my raise to 40 doesn't give me any real information, as both a flush draw and any ace calls the raise), and big blind and the aforementioned Bluffer call. Turn is a diamond. Big blind shoves (I have around 150 left and he has me covered). Bluffer makes a really long speech about how he can't believe he's folding his hand and how he's not actually worried that big blind hit his flush but that big blind actually has an Ace. This of course influences my decision because now I think that it's likely villain has an Ace with a big diamond. Once Bluffer folds, I call, and see the flush. The river misses and I'm down around 500 at the table already. A lot of the regs at the 2-3-5 tables tell me that I can't fold two pair there (which may or may not be their honest opinion), but the fact that it's even a discussion that I should call is a big indication for the difference between 1-2-2 and 2-3-5 (at 1-2-2, you never call in that scenario).
Anyways, I'm rattled, but still convinced that I can beat this game, so I buy-in again. Unfortunately, I'm left with only 200 left (I'd brought around 800 with me). Then I start running hot again. I get QQ on the button, raise to 35 after numerous limps, get 5-6 calls, and see a flop of QJx with a flush draw. It gets checked to me, and at this point, I can't bet anything small as any sizable bet commits me to the pot. I get called by KT who misses and I quickly double up. Soon afterwards, I get JJ and raise early position. I get called by two players and we see a flop of Jxx. This time, with my bigger stack, fewer players in the hand, and less obvious draws, I can afford to deceptively check. Turn is a K. I bet, small stack calls, bigger stack behind raises, and I shove. Both players call and the river is a blank. Apparently, the big stack had AK (as the player next to him later said). After the AK rebuys again, I wake up with AA late position and raise. Only he calls and we see a low flop with a flush draw. He check raises me all-in and I call. He misses his flush and I'm now at 1000+. Then comes the cooler.
-Hand #7-
I wake up UTG with KK. I make a relatively standard open to 25 (this is after showing down the previous hand with K9, having raised preflop to this same amount). I get two calls before a 550 stack raises me to 65. There's actually a call after him to me, and I know that villain has a big hand (he's not one of the super LAG regs). That means either AA, KK, QQ, JJ, AK, or maybe AQs. I figure since I'm out of position, I can't afford to flat here. I even tell myself that AQ and potentially AK/JJ are probably going to fold to a reraise, while QQ and potentially AK/JJ are going to call. This means that the only hand that can reraise me is AA. By 4-betting here, I can then determine if indeed I'm behind with KK. So I repop to 160. Folds to villain who announces all-in immediately. Remember my plan earlier? Well, when there's so much money on the table, it's hard to stick to previous plans. Now, I tank for a really long time, all the while subconsciously trying to convince myself villain can have QQ (because I lose a lot more utility from folding to QQ than from calling AA). I reluctantly put in 400 more and he predictably flips over AA. I miss my 18% and lose the largest pot in my brief history (an 1200 dollar pot). In hindsight, I played the hand perfectly, and had myself set up to fold to a 5-bet but I couldn't get away from the additional 400. I was calling 400 to win 700 so there needed to be a 35% chance villain has QQ. I'd convinced myself that with the loose nature of the table, villain is 5-betting with QQ at least half of the time. In hindsight, against any random player at the 2-3-5 tables, that's still not the case. Given the player in particular, it was an even worse error. He's probably 5-betting QQ 5% of the time, giving me absolutely no odds to call. Some might argue that I should have just called his 3-bet but what happens when the flop is all low (like it ended up being)? I don't think I'm going anywhere on a flop of 6-3-2 or something, so the 4-bet is correct as it should save me money in the long run, as long as I don't do something stupid. Of course, since I did, I ended up paying 400 to learn that no player at the 2-3-5 tables 5-bet shoves QQ.
This leaves me totally rattled and down to a stack of around 450. I hover around 400 before the next interesting hand.
-Hand #8-
I have Q9 of hearts in late position, and it's limped around to me, so I follow suit. About 6 players see a flop of ATx with two hearts. Early position limper bets out, Bluffer calls and so do I.
Turn is a 9. Checks around to me, and I bet relatively big (like 40 into a pot of 60). Original better tank-folds and Bluffer calls. River is a non-heart 10. Bluffer leads into me for 75 and I'm convinced there's no way he can call me on the turn with just a 10, and he's a solid enough player that he wouldn't have 1) check-called the turn with an Ace and 2) bet into me with an Ace, that I know he either has a boat (from a flopped set) or he's bluffing a missed draw. I almost instantly call and he mucks. I want to muck my hand too but apparently, I have to show it anyways. Bluffer asks me if I think he had a lower flush draw and I tell him yes.
This hand leaves me at around 550 and I eventually leave slightly above 500. However, the last hand before I left was interesting as well.
-Hand #9 (Bystander)-
Player A is in the small blind with a stack of 500. Player B is UTG+1 with a stack of around 250. Bluffer has everyone involved covered and is in the cutoff (I was the button). Player A seems a little like me, probably usually a solid player but overly tight at the 2-3-5 tables. Player B just seems bad, not like the bad players at the 1-2-2 tables, as he's not egregiously stupid; he just plays too passively.
Anyways, someone opens preflop and about 5 players see the flop. Flop is A65 with 2 hearts. Player A bets 25 into a pot of 80, player B ships for 200 more. Bluffer calls pretty fast (for him), and Player A then shoves over the top for 300 more. Just as Player A is reraising, Player B (who is already all-in) complains about how he now knows that he's beat (I'm not sure this made a difference in Bluffer's decision but it does make his decision a whole lot easier as it's clear Player B doesn't have a flush draw now). Consequently, Player B obviously has either 2-pair or bottom set. Player A obviously has a set. Now, since Bluffer is tanking, it's obvious he's got a draw, and probably more than just a flush draw if he called the original 200. He'd be calling 300 to win about 1000 so with just an open-ender or just a flush-draw, he's got more than enough odds. Turn is a blank but the river is a heart. Bluffer shows 79 of hearts, while Player A shows 55 and Player B shows A6. I'm not sure Bluffer's original 200 call is correct though. Assuming Player A folds (which means he probably has an A) and Player B has 2 pair/a set, Bluffer has 12 outs and 36% equity (taking into account board pairs). If Player B has a higher flush draw, he's got even less equity (27%). He's calling 200 to win 300 in this scenario, and he doesn't have enough equity in either to justify calling. The only way he has even close to enough equity to call is if Player A is in with 2-pair/a set since Bluffer would be calling to win more and there's fewer board pairs to dodge. However, in that case, Player A is almost guaranteed to be shoving over the top, and then the math gets a little more complicated. Furthermore, it's conceivable (before Bluffer's 200 call) that Player A has a set and Player B has a higher flush draw, and in that case Bluffer has only 10% equity. He can only win the main pot with a non-heart 8 and he still only has 30% equity in the side pot. Now, even in his best case scenario (which is if he knows for certain that both players have sets/two-pair), Player A has to shove, and then Bluffer is still calling 500 to win 750 with 37% equity, which is still not worth it. Of course, I did all this with the aid of the Poker Odds Calculator so I can't criticize Bluffer too much.
-Summary-
Time at 1-2 cash tables: 16 hours
1-2 Cash: +$720
Time at 2-5 cash tables: 4.5 hours
2-5 Cash: -$200
Total time at the cash tables: 20.5 hours
Cash Games: +$520
Time at the tournies: ~9 hours
Tournies: -$240
Poker total: +$280
Gas and food: ~ -$20
Net: +$260
-On record career to date-
Time at the 1-2 cash tables: 30.75 hours
1-2 Cash: +$1270
Time at the 2-5 cash tables: 4.5 hours
2-5 Cash: -$200
Total time at cash tables: 35.25 hours
Cash games: +$1070
Time at the tournies: ~9 hours
Tournies: -$240
Poker total: +$830
Net: ~ +$755
Friday, December 30, 2011
Monday, December 19, 2011
There's value to be had from actively watching hands I'm not involved in
Charles Town Session 3:
My weekends nowadays primarily involve choosing between hanging with Joe and the Spiegel(s) and playing poker at Charles Town. Since Joe and Maria were out of town on Saturday, I decided to make my third on-record visit to the casino. Unfortunately, I hadn't slept well the entire week, including Friday night/Saturday morning, so I don't remember that many hands from the session (although to be fair, there weren't that many interesting hands compared to the previous sessions). I arrived there relatively early (2:40ish), but for some reason, the waitlist was already up to 20, which generally means at least a half-hour wait, and in this case, I finally sat down at 3:30. The table was generally soft, with the only good player sitting 1 seat to my right the entire time until he left.
I buy-in for the customary $200. I'm able to win a couple of hands by c-betting the flop and build my stack to around $240 before the first interesting hand of the night.
-Hand #1-
Villain sits UTG/UTG+1 and even from the short history I have, it's obvious he's a very loose and an overall spewy player. However, he does have a huge stack (~500), so that's always good news. This particular table has loved to limp and this hand is no different. There are about 2-3 limps to me, including villain, and I wake up with AA late position. I make it 16 and villain and a guy in middle position call.
Flop is KQx rainbow. Checks to me so I cbet 25 and only villain calls.
Turn is another Q that does now put a flush draw out there. Villain checks, I bet 35 (hoping now to pot control because the turn is horrible, since villain could have easily called me with a Q or his JT might have added a flush draw). He check-raises me to 75. I think for a while, and while at these levels, this move signals a Q a lot more than it would at higher stakes, I think villain is capable of bluffing the Q with his draw, so I decide to call and reevaluate if he again bets the river.
River is a blank. He insta-bets 100 (which almost puts me all-in). The river has changed nothing so either he has a Q or he's missed his draw. There's 250 in the pot right now, so I'm getting more than 3:1 on my money. From the previous 3-4 hands I've seen him play, he's shown enough missed draws (even gutshots) that his range is essentially AQ, QJ, QT, Q9, AJ, AT, JT, J9, or T9. I've eliminated KQ because I'd expect 1) KQ to raise the flop, and 2) KQ to check-call the turn (or maybe lead out, but not check-raise). AQ, AJ, and AT limping UTG/UTG+1 are odd plays (not impossible but unlikely) and Q9 would be extremely loose, even for villain. That leaves him with QJ, QT, JT, J9, or T9. I do downgrade the possibility of JT, J9, and T9 because it's definitely not a given he would be capable of bluffing the turn Q. However, I only need him to be bluffing 25% of the time, so I have to call. He says good call and shows JT.
This hand leaves me at $500 and I hover around that mark (though at one point, dropping to around 350) for the good part of the next couple of hours. One curious hand I lost was one against the previous villain where I bet two streets in position with middle pair (with a flush draw on the board), and once the flush draw missed, villain curiously checked an overpair to me (and I'd probably have called a decent sized river bet). One hand I won was one against a player I still don't have much information on (as very few of his hands reached showdown). I floated a pocket pair in position for 2 streets (thinking he has A high) and then sucked out by hitting my set on the river and raising him all-in. It certainly seems like my original read was wrong, but at the same time, every draw missed and if he really did have a hand, he probably should have called. I did make one horrendously stupid mistake on a low rainbow paired board (like 775), I miscalculated my pot odds to calling a small-stacked shove (he bet 35 into 30 with an obvious pocket pair) with two overs. Somehow, I end up with 545 when I decide to take my dinner break at 6:30.
I ended up making a horribly stupid decision when I returned. I was worried about being allowed to buy-in for any amount (instead of what I'd left for dinner with), and that's not a problem as long as someone comes back after over an hour from his/her dinner break. However, I came back at 7:20, and once I realized I'd returned too early, I was like, whatever, I can play with 500. Unfortunately, while I was worrying about that, I entirely forgot that the rake is posted at around :25 and :55 every hour, and basically, I had to pay 6 bucks even before playing my first hand when I could have sat down immediately after the rake. It was obviously an insignificant amount in terms of money but stupid mental mistakes like this always end up costing me a lot more in terms of my utility. Anyways, I sat down with my 500 at a table that looked comparatively soft based on the chip stacks, with only one relatively big stack (usually by 7:30, there's at least 2-3 stacks of over 400 at every table).
I immediately get action. On the first hand, I raise late position to 16 after a few limps with suited connectors, and my c-bet takes the pot. On the second hand, I wake up with JJ (my favorite hand and the second time I've gotten them on the day, and they held up as an overpair the first time) and again make it 16. I get two calls (one by a limp before me and one by villain directly to my left). I c-bet 25 on a K-high flop with a flush draw and villain calls with about 60 behind (at which point I'm sure he has a flush draw). The turn is a non-flush J, so I ship, knowing that even on the small chance he has a K, he'll probably call. The river misses the flush, I show my turned set, and villain says he missed. However, the other side of the table thinks I sucked out because they don't hear what villain has said, and I don't correct them because that's always a great reaction to have. I build my stack to around 650 before the second interesting hand of the night.
-Hand #2-
I'm in the cutoff and somehow, it's folded around to me (no limps). I look at K9o and I'm fine playing almost any hand heads-up in position, so I raise to 11. Button and small blind fold and villain raises to 35. Unfortunately, I haven't paid that much attention to what's been going on when not involved in the hand, so I don't really have a read on villain. He's a relatively young Asian guy though, so I think his raising range at this point is relatively wide (i.e. not just big pairs and AK). I end up making 3 mistakes here in calling the raise (this somewhat foreshadows the results of the hand but oh well): 1) I should have had a read on villain had I been paying any attention at all, and the read on him should be that he's super tight; 2) if I didn't have a read, I shouldn't have been willing to commit so much preflop and leave myself subject to so much variance when my EV on this hand can't be very positive; 3) K9o is just such a bad hand against preflop raisers that I simply should have waited for a better opportunity anyways. Unfortunately, I end up placing too much value on not setting a precedent for raising me preflop (i.e. I don't want anyone else to get the idea that they can get me to fold my preflop opens), when this shouldn't be a problem at these levels because not enough players pay attention to details like that.
Anyways, I call the 35 and see a flop of K87 all spades. He c-bets 50 into the pot of 70, and since I also have the 9 of spades, I call. (Nothing wrong with this street, as I'm now ahead of any hand that didn't dominate me preflop).
Turn is a non-spade 6 (the worst card in the deck for me). He ships for 125. Now, it's obvious he has AK or AA. I need to call 125 to win 300, so I need at least 14-15 outs. If he doesn't have the A of spades, I easily more than enough odds to call (9 flush outs, 6 additional straight outs, 3 2-pair outs, and 2 more trips outs if he has AA for a total of 18/20 outs). If he does have the A of spades, I then only have 9 outs (if he has AK) and 11 outs (if he has AA). Given no additional post-flop information, the probability that he has AA is higher if he does have the A of spades (i.e. weighted towards 11 outs instead of 9), and the probability that he has the A of spades is less than 50% (50% if he has AA, 25% if he has AK, so weighted towards the 18/20 outs than the 9/11 outs). Furthermore, I think the AA or AK without the A of spades has to bet large on both the flop and turn, while AA or AK with the A of spades is so strong on this board that he could easily try to extract max value by betting 35-40 on the flop and then 60-70 on the turn (because if I have a K without a spade, I have to fold the turn shove instantly, and maybe even the almost pot-sized flop bet). If there's a 50% chance he has AA vs AK, and a 50% chance he has the A of spades, then I still have odds to call (my expected outs is 14.5), but since it's more likely he has AA and more likely he does not have the A of spades, the call becomes very easy.
River is a non-spade blank. Villain shows AA with the A of spades (so I only had 11 outs). This hand is one of those situations where a bad preflop mistake ends up trumping good postflop play.
This hand leaves me at a little over 400, and slightly rattled. After some additional consideration, I conclude (correctly), that my post flop calls were defensible and correct. I slowly build my stack back up, with a number of well played hands, including the following.
-Hand #3-
I'm in the big blind with T8o. There about 2-3 limps around, including by villain on the button. I check my option.
Flop is KTx with a flush draw. Check around to villain, who bets 6 into the pot of 10. Only I call.
Turn is a blank. I check, he bets 15. At this point, I'm almost certain villain has the flush draw, because any K he'd play preflop should have raised in position instead of limped.
River is a non-flush A. I check again, and he bets 25. The ace is probably the best card in the deck for me (outside of a T, or maybe the 9 but that hits the open-ender), because most people with a K would check the river when the A hits. Because villain bets, I'm almost certain he has a missed draw (of course, he could have had the nut flush draw), so I call instantly. He says good call and I show my T for the win.
I'm back over 500, and after another hour, slowly make it up close to 575. The final interesting hand of the night then occurs.
-Hand #4-
I'm on the button and villain is UTG. He's a very bad player in the sense that he's probably played poker for fewer hours in his life than I have the last 3 sessions. (One hand previously involved me c-betting OOP with an open-ender and then conceding the turn after he and another player call the flop, but he ends up not betting the turn with his trips when both of us check). He limps, as do 2-3 more players, and I do as well with 56o.
Flop comes KQ5 rainbow. Checks around to me, so I decide to take the pot right here if I'm ahead, and possibly set up a bigger pot if I hit my 5 outer on the turn/river (while in position). I bet 6 into the pot of 10, and only villain calls.
Turn is another 5. Villain checks, and I bet 15. He calls.
River is an 8. Villain checks, I value-bet 35, and he check-raises all-in for 65 more. This totally surprises me, as I just can't see any hand that would play this way. Villain doesn't seem like the type of bad player to try to limp KK or QQ preflop, and he certainly doesn't seem to be capable to float me twice OOP with 88. The only hand I can see him having is A5 (remember, beginners love their ace-rags), but he could have a whole number of hands that I would still beat. I've seen enough players at Charles Town who think that 3 pair is a great hand (i.e. KQ or K8), and plenty more who'll bluff their missed draws regardless of whether they have a credible story. The fact that his check-raise shove simply makes no sense to me whatsoever leaves me tanking for a while, but ultimately, I think there's maybe a 10% chance he has A5 and has me beat (and maybe a 1% chance he's got a boat) so I have to call. He shows KT, and says, "I thought you had a Q so I wanted you to call." Yup, totally the noobiest kind of noob...
After a few more hands, I start to get a headache, and I've been exhausted the entire session so I decide to call it a night relatively early at 10:30. I leave my post-dinner session with 733, and that leaves me up 233 for those 3 hours, for a total of +578 for the entire day.
-Summary-
Time at the tables: 6 hours
Poker: +$578
Gas and food: ~ -$20
Net: ~ +$558
-On record career to date-
Time at the tables: 14.75 hours
Poker: +$551
Net: ~ +$495
Brags: Made some great calls today, especially given that I tend to fold to too many river raises/bets.
Beats: Shouldn't have called the 3-bet preflop against the AA in the big blind.
Variance: This may or may not be a trend, but I've been losing a lot of ginormous pots recently (small = <$100, medium = $100-$200, big = $200-$300, ginormous = >$300). Part of that has probably been the ill-advised and ill-timed bluffs from the previous sessions, but the other has been the result of seeing big flops with marginal hands (i.e. hands that can easily be behind even after hitting). If I can cut down on these losses, I'll be able to increase my net profits dramatically (even keeping in mind that a lot of the big/ginormous pots I do win are a product of my wide preflop range).
My weekends nowadays primarily involve choosing between hanging with Joe and the Spiegel(s) and playing poker at Charles Town. Since Joe and Maria were out of town on Saturday, I decided to make my third on-record visit to the casino. Unfortunately, I hadn't slept well the entire week, including Friday night/Saturday morning, so I don't remember that many hands from the session (although to be fair, there weren't that many interesting hands compared to the previous sessions). I arrived there relatively early (2:40ish), but for some reason, the waitlist was already up to 20, which generally means at least a half-hour wait, and in this case, I finally sat down at 3:30. The table was generally soft, with the only good player sitting 1 seat to my right the entire time until he left.
I buy-in for the customary $200. I'm able to win a couple of hands by c-betting the flop and build my stack to around $240 before the first interesting hand of the night.
-Hand #1-
Villain sits UTG/UTG+1 and even from the short history I have, it's obvious he's a very loose and an overall spewy player. However, he does have a huge stack (~500), so that's always good news. This particular table has loved to limp and this hand is no different. There are about 2-3 limps to me, including villain, and I wake up with AA late position. I make it 16 and villain and a guy in middle position call.
Flop is KQx rainbow. Checks to me so I cbet 25 and only villain calls.
Turn is another Q that does now put a flush draw out there. Villain checks, I bet 35 (hoping now to pot control because the turn is horrible, since villain could have easily called me with a Q or his JT might have added a flush draw). He check-raises me to 75. I think for a while, and while at these levels, this move signals a Q a lot more than it would at higher stakes, I think villain is capable of bluffing the Q with his draw, so I decide to call and reevaluate if he again bets the river.
River is a blank. He insta-bets 100 (which almost puts me all-in). The river has changed nothing so either he has a Q or he's missed his draw. There's 250 in the pot right now, so I'm getting more than 3:1 on my money. From the previous 3-4 hands I've seen him play, he's shown enough missed draws (even gutshots) that his range is essentially AQ, QJ, QT, Q9, AJ, AT, JT, J9, or T9. I've eliminated KQ because I'd expect 1) KQ to raise the flop, and 2) KQ to check-call the turn (or maybe lead out, but not check-raise). AQ, AJ, and AT limping UTG/UTG+1 are odd plays (not impossible but unlikely) and Q9 would be extremely loose, even for villain. That leaves him with QJ, QT, JT, J9, or T9. I do downgrade the possibility of JT, J9, and T9 because it's definitely not a given he would be capable of bluffing the turn Q. However, I only need him to be bluffing 25% of the time, so I have to call. He says good call and shows JT.
This hand leaves me at $500 and I hover around that mark (though at one point, dropping to around 350) for the good part of the next couple of hours. One curious hand I lost was one against the previous villain where I bet two streets in position with middle pair (with a flush draw on the board), and once the flush draw missed, villain curiously checked an overpair to me (and I'd probably have called a decent sized river bet). One hand I won was one against a player I still don't have much information on (as very few of his hands reached showdown). I floated a pocket pair in position for 2 streets (thinking he has A high) and then sucked out by hitting my set on the river and raising him all-in. It certainly seems like my original read was wrong, but at the same time, every draw missed and if he really did have a hand, he probably should have called. I did make one horrendously stupid mistake on a low rainbow paired board (like 775), I miscalculated my pot odds to calling a small-stacked shove (he bet 35 into 30 with an obvious pocket pair) with two overs. Somehow, I end up with 545 when I decide to take my dinner break at 6:30.
I ended up making a horribly stupid decision when I returned. I was worried about being allowed to buy-in for any amount (instead of what I'd left for dinner with), and that's not a problem as long as someone comes back after over an hour from his/her dinner break. However, I came back at 7:20, and once I realized I'd returned too early, I was like, whatever, I can play with 500. Unfortunately, while I was worrying about that, I entirely forgot that the rake is posted at around :25 and :55 every hour, and basically, I had to pay 6 bucks even before playing my first hand when I could have sat down immediately after the rake. It was obviously an insignificant amount in terms of money but stupid mental mistakes like this always end up costing me a lot more in terms of my utility. Anyways, I sat down with my 500 at a table that looked comparatively soft based on the chip stacks, with only one relatively big stack (usually by 7:30, there's at least 2-3 stacks of over 400 at every table).
I immediately get action. On the first hand, I raise late position to 16 after a few limps with suited connectors, and my c-bet takes the pot. On the second hand, I wake up with JJ (my favorite hand and the second time I've gotten them on the day, and they held up as an overpair the first time) and again make it 16. I get two calls (one by a limp before me and one by villain directly to my left). I c-bet 25 on a K-high flop with a flush draw and villain calls with about 60 behind (at which point I'm sure he has a flush draw). The turn is a non-flush J, so I ship, knowing that even on the small chance he has a K, he'll probably call. The river misses the flush, I show my turned set, and villain says he missed. However, the other side of the table thinks I sucked out because they don't hear what villain has said, and I don't correct them because that's always a great reaction to have. I build my stack to around 650 before the second interesting hand of the night.
-Hand #2-
I'm in the cutoff and somehow, it's folded around to me (no limps). I look at K9o and I'm fine playing almost any hand heads-up in position, so I raise to 11. Button and small blind fold and villain raises to 35. Unfortunately, I haven't paid that much attention to what's been going on when not involved in the hand, so I don't really have a read on villain. He's a relatively young Asian guy though, so I think his raising range at this point is relatively wide (i.e. not just big pairs and AK). I end up making 3 mistakes here in calling the raise (this somewhat foreshadows the results of the hand but oh well): 1) I should have had a read on villain had I been paying any attention at all, and the read on him should be that he's super tight; 2) if I didn't have a read, I shouldn't have been willing to commit so much preflop and leave myself subject to so much variance when my EV on this hand can't be very positive; 3) K9o is just such a bad hand against preflop raisers that I simply should have waited for a better opportunity anyways. Unfortunately, I end up placing too much value on not setting a precedent for raising me preflop (i.e. I don't want anyone else to get the idea that they can get me to fold my preflop opens), when this shouldn't be a problem at these levels because not enough players pay attention to details like that.
Anyways, I call the 35 and see a flop of K87 all spades. He c-bets 50 into the pot of 70, and since I also have the 9 of spades, I call. (Nothing wrong with this street, as I'm now ahead of any hand that didn't dominate me preflop).
Turn is a non-spade 6 (the worst card in the deck for me). He ships for 125. Now, it's obvious he has AK or AA. I need to call 125 to win 300, so I need at least 14-15 outs. If he doesn't have the A of spades, I easily more than enough odds to call (9 flush outs, 6 additional straight outs, 3 2-pair outs, and 2 more trips outs if he has AA for a total of 18/20 outs). If he does have the A of spades, I then only have 9 outs (if he has AK) and 11 outs (if he has AA). Given no additional post-flop information, the probability that he has AA is higher if he does have the A of spades (i.e. weighted towards 11 outs instead of 9), and the probability that he has the A of spades is less than 50% (50% if he has AA, 25% if he has AK, so weighted towards the 18/20 outs than the 9/11 outs). Furthermore, I think the AA or AK without the A of spades has to bet large on both the flop and turn, while AA or AK with the A of spades is so strong on this board that he could easily try to extract max value by betting 35-40 on the flop and then 60-70 on the turn (because if I have a K without a spade, I have to fold the turn shove instantly, and maybe even the almost pot-sized flop bet). If there's a 50% chance he has AA vs AK, and a 50% chance he has the A of spades, then I still have odds to call (my expected outs is 14.5), but since it's more likely he has AA and more likely he does not have the A of spades, the call becomes very easy.
River is a non-spade blank. Villain shows AA with the A of spades (so I only had 11 outs). This hand is one of those situations where a bad preflop mistake ends up trumping good postflop play.
This hand leaves me at a little over 400, and slightly rattled. After some additional consideration, I conclude (correctly), that my post flop calls were defensible and correct. I slowly build my stack back up, with a number of well played hands, including the following.
-Hand #3-
I'm in the big blind with T8o. There about 2-3 limps around, including by villain on the button. I check my option.
Flop is KTx with a flush draw. Check around to villain, who bets 6 into the pot of 10. Only I call.
Turn is a blank. I check, he bets 15. At this point, I'm almost certain villain has the flush draw, because any K he'd play preflop should have raised in position instead of limped.
River is a non-flush A. I check again, and he bets 25. The ace is probably the best card in the deck for me (outside of a T, or maybe the 9 but that hits the open-ender), because most people with a K would check the river when the A hits. Because villain bets, I'm almost certain he has a missed draw (of course, he could have had the nut flush draw), so I call instantly. He says good call and I show my T for the win.
I'm back over 500, and after another hour, slowly make it up close to 575. The final interesting hand of the night then occurs.
-Hand #4-
I'm on the button and villain is UTG. He's a very bad player in the sense that he's probably played poker for fewer hours in his life than I have the last 3 sessions. (One hand previously involved me c-betting OOP with an open-ender and then conceding the turn after he and another player call the flop, but he ends up not betting the turn with his trips when both of us check). He limps, as do 2-3 more players, and I do as well with 56o.
Flop comes KQ5 rainbow. Checks around to me, so I decide to take the pot right here if I'm ahead, and possibly set up a bigger pot if I hit my 5 outer on the turn/river (while in position). I bet 6 into the pot of 10, and only villain calls.
Turn is another 5. Villain checks, and I bet 15. He calls.
River is an 8. Villain checks, I value-bet 35, and he check-raises all-in for 65 more. This totally surprises me, as I just can't see any hand that would play this way. Villain doesn't seem like the type of bad player to try to limp KK or QQ preflop, and he certainly doesn't seem to be capable to float me twice OOP with 88. The only hand I can see him having is A5 (remember, beginners love their ace-rags), but he could have a whole number of hands that I would still beat. I've seen enough players at Charles Town who think that 3 pair is a great hand (i.e. KQ or K8), and plenty more who'll bluff their missed draws regardless of whether they have a credible story. The fact that his check-raise shove simply makes no sense to me whatsoever leaves me tanking for a while, but ultimately, I think there's maybe a 10% chance he has A5 and has me beat (and maybe a 1% chance he's got a boat) so I have to call. He shows KT, and says, "I thought you had a Q so I wanted you to call." Yup, totally the noobiest kind of noob...
After a few more hands, I start to get a headache, and I've been exhausted the entire session so I decide to call it a night relatively early at 10:30. I leave my post-dinner session with 733, and that leaves me up 233 for those 3 hours, for a total of +578 for the entire day.
-Summary-
Time at the tables: 6 hours
Poker: +$578
Gas and food: ~ -$20
Net: ~ +$558
-On record career to date-
Time at the tables: 14.75 hours
Poker: +$551
Net: ~ +$495
Brags: Made some great calls today, especially given that I tend to fold to too many river raises/bets.
Beats: Shouldn't have called the 3-bet preflop against the AA in the big blind.
Variance: This may or may not be a trend, but I've been losing a lot of ginormous pots recently (small = <$100, medium = $100-$200, big = $200-$300, ginormous = >$300). Part of that has probably been the ill-advised and ill-timed bluffs from the previous sessions, but the other has been the result of seeing big flops with marginal hands (i.e. hands that can easily be behind even after hitting). If I can cut down on these losses, I'll be able to increase my net profits dramatically (even keeping in mind that a lot of the big/ginormous pots I do win are a product of my wide preflop range).
Monday, December 5, 2011
Moral: Don't try to bluff a bad player off an overpair. Ever
Charles Town Session 2:
This past Saturday, I went with Joe Hsu to Charles Town. We got there at around 2:40 and only had to wait ~20 minutes (a waiting list of 10 people), and the list blew up afterwords. Clearly, there's utility to be had from simply arriving half an hour earlier than I usually do. We requested separate tables, as usual, and the first table I joined was one of the softer tables ever in my brief poker career. Plus, it never hurts to run like the sun.
I buy-in for my customary first 200. Sadly, there were so many memorable hands throughout the night that I ended up forgetting many of them. In short, this first table was so extremely loose passive that I never once had to worry about being raised, and that's an unbelievable feeling. Because of the overwhelming table passivity, I began straddling every UTG hand (unfortunately, Charles Town doesn't do button straddles), knowing that the only time my straddle would ever be raised was by AA, KK, QQ, JJ, AK, and oftentimes still not raised by these hands. The first memorable hand actually occurs on another player's straddle.
-Hand #1-
Villain sits UTG and straddles to 7 with about 150 behind (side note: I've never understood the > minimum straddle. To me, the entire purpose of the straddle is to buy the option, and unless you're super stacked and simply trying to increase the pot size--which almost all of these players who straddle big aren't--it's a weekly dominated strategy). I haven't been at the table long enough to have a specific read on villain, but he is a relatively young (i.e. <30) and relatively buff Hispanic guy, and without individual reads, it's essential to stereotype (young+buff+Hispanic => a macho calling station that would much rather call off a value bet than fold to a bluff). There are 3-4 callers. It's important now to note that this field has been leaving so much dead money on the table, because the majority of the limps, even to straddles, are with marginal hands that fold immediately to a raise. I realize that while villain most likely will over-call post-flop bets, he still won't play the majority of his preflop hands (anything that's not T+T+ or a medium connector), and I'm 80% sure that all of the limpers are folding, so this is a very profitable stealing opportunity, especially with my tight table image atm (I'd barely played any hands for half an hour). I entirely intend to raise all hands in my small blind, but I obviously look anyways to try to exude strength when I do raise. I wake up with J5o. I raise to 21, thinking I'm investing 21 with about a 50% chance of winning 28-35 immediately, with the plan to only continue postflop if I hit. Villain calls 14 more and everyone else fold.
Pot is ~70 to a flop of Jxx rainbow. I now fully expect to continue in this hand to showdown (unless I'm raised on the flop). Villain now has ~130 behind and in hands where I'm trying to eventually extract an all-in, I try to bet about 1/3 of villain's stack (assuming 1/3 of his stack is a reasonable bet relative to the pot). I do just that and bet 40. Villain thinks and calls.
Turn is another blank. I now bet 55 knowing he can't flat call over half of his stack and predictably, he shoves. I insta-call.
River is a Q. I show my jacks and he mucks. It seems like he probably had a pocket lower than J but higher than middle pair on the flop. I think I played this hand perfectly, but of course, it never hurts to hit.
Now, the table is murmuring about how this kid can possibly be raising J5, and this is almost always a great table image to have. I fully expected to be seeing more action on my raises, so I narrowed my preflop raising range even further (i.e. suited connectors were now limps). Instead though (and I realized this after the table folded to my 3-bet raises with AA--my first in over 5 sessions-- and AK), they simply became afraid of me, and while this treatment isn't as great as the maniacal image that I'd expected, it still made their moves much more readable and predictable. Not soon after the J5 hand was probably the only hand I did not play perfectly before the dinner break.
-Hand #2-
Villain is in early position and is a middle-aged Asian guy. Usually, I'd expect middle-aged Asian players to be very tight (usually passive as well), but it became clear afterwords (and to some extent, even before this hand) that he was not as disciplined whatsoever. I believe he'd opened a hand with A8o in early position prior to the current hand (i.e. the novice strategy of any ace is a good hand), and I'd seen him call to showdown top pair with a middling kicker. This description of villain is what makes the following play especially questionable, but my move was most likely incorrect against any generic opponent.
Villain limps early position. There are a couple more limps and I wake up with KQ hearts in the cutoff. I raise to 13 and two players, including villain, call.
Flop is KT5 rainbow, with one heart. Checks around to me, I bet 26 into the pot of 39, only villain calls.
Turn is a blank heart. Villain pretty quickly bets into me 45. I'm entirely befuddled at this point, because this move is usually a strong signal of strength for optimally-behaving opponents. Note that one of my flaws that I've mentioned I need to work on is an ability to realize that bad players don't play optimally (seems simple but somehow evades me during the actual hands). I'd been working on this flaw and it seems to have improved, but this hand demonstrates that it hasn't been fixed entirely. At this point, I'm irrationally afraid that I'm way behind (i.e. set). Against good players, I should either be raising (if there aren't big implied stacks behind, to take control against marginal hands that have me currently beat, like AK or two pair) or calling (if the implied stacks are huge, in hopes of raising a river heart). Even against bad players, I should be calling confidently, because I'm more often than not still ahead on the turn (raising becomes suboptimal because they're likely to push AK/two pair, and they'll pay off the river with worse kings if I just call). I do call, but unfortunately, not confidently.
River is a blank. Villain checks, and because I'd put him on a big hand on the turn, I check. There are two mistakes with this move. 1) The river check is a HUGE sign of weakness (he can't expect me to bet into him for the most part, so he almost always isn't check-raising), and I oftentimes have trouble updating my information when I'm previously confident about a read (i.e. I'm a stubborn SOB). 2) As I mentioned earlier, I simply shouldn't have narrowed his range to primarily hands that beat me. In hindsight, the river check eliminates all sets and two pairs, so he either has a K or he has QJ. There's almost nothing else he can have. Because there's no way he's check-raising here (especially since he's not a thinking player), there's no harm in betting into QJ and having it fold (i.e. I'm not risking getting check-raise bluffed here). So the only difference between checking and betting the river is against villain's kings. AK will possibly bet the river (say at least 30% of the time), so that decreases the chances of AK further. What other hands could he have? He could have KQ (for a chop, against whom betting is a weakly dominant strategy), KJ, KT, or even possibly K9s. AK definitely calls a river bet, but the other kings almost always do as well. With the possibility that AK still bets the river, AK is a much smaller portion of his range, and I'm clearing missing out on EV by not betting. And of course, he does have KJ. There was somewhat similar hand I played against a different opponent where I'd gotten bet into when I'd flopped top pair (I believe this occurred on the flop though). However, this other hand was probably played correctly (i.e. checking behind the following street(s)) as I had a marginal kicker (I'd flopped jacks with JT and he ended up showing middle pair, so he'd probably have folded anything that I could beat).
I slowly build my chip stack to the overwhelming big stack (~600) with hands that I'm sure were interesting but that I can no longer recall. A lot of them involved flopping top pair though (I wasn't necessarily getting great preflop hands, but I was simply hitting almost every hand that I was playing and missing most of the ones I wasn't), demonstrating just how hot I was running . So does the following hand.
-Hand #3-
Middle-aged Asian guy from the previous hand is again the villain. By now, I definitely have realized that he's not a good player, which influences how I played this hand. I'm in the small blind and villain raises the straddle. There's 1-2 calls to me and I call with 7-8.
Flop comes 776. I check to villain to maximize EV if he does have a large pair. He bets, I call.
Turn is a blank (i.e. doesn't complete the straight draw). I check and he checks behind.
River is the case 7. It's obvious he either has a big pair or 2 over cards that missed and c-bet the flop. Given how bad he is though, he's almost guaranteed to call any river bet with an overpair (warning: I unfortunately don't realize this and I mistakenly bluff away in a subsequent hand). I overbet him allin (slightly more than the pot). He calls. I show him my quads and he leaves.
I eventually build my stack to 873 before Joe and I decide to take a dinner break. Joe mentions to me that Michael Phelps was there at the 1-2 tables, which is kinda cool. Apparently, he was waiting on the list just like any other player and didn't make a big deal about being super rich and famous. I kind of wish I'd gotten a chance to switch to his table just to, you know, meet the guy, but this was still the closest I've ever been to a famous person. Anyways, we come back from dinner an hour later, which allows me to buy in for any amount (instead of having to play with 873), so I start with my customary 200. My new table is eons better than my previous one; there are still a few bad players but there are enough good players with big stacks that you can't simply expect to roll over everyone. Joe's mentioned to me that he doesn't think people in general table switch enough, and while I tend to agree with that sentiment, it doesn't necessarily apply as strictly to me because it's as much about the learning experience at this point for me as it is about the literal EV. Long story short, I'm happy to be getting some actual poker experience in at this new table.
I start off the same way I'd left--hitting every flop. Unfortunately, hitting flops isn't always great. One hand, I flopped top pair second kicker (KT) OOP and my c-bet got raised. There was indeed a flush draw out there, but my read on my opponent was that he had an actual made hand (which in fact could have been simply JT) but it wasn't worth it for me to probably have to call 1-2 more streets OOP. On another hand, I flopped an ace with A7s in the small blind against the button raiser (after a straddle), and he ended up betting the flop and turn and I was forced to fold on the turn after the third card to a flush hit. These two hands left me down slightly less than 100 so I added on another 100. Almost immediately comes the next interesting hand (well, not so much interesting as noteworthy).
-Hand #4-
This table has featured 2-3 decent big stacks who've been straddling decently large (between 6 and 10) to increase preflop sizes and overall action. This hand occurs on one of their straddles. Villain is the other big stack and calls UTG, and 1-2 more calls to me in late position. I wake up with JJ. I raise to ~20 (assuming the straddle was 6). Villain and one of the blinds join me to the flop. Note that JJ is by far my favorite hand, because I've almost always hit my J set, and it's almost always paid me off (my net profit with JJ might be somewhere between 500 and 1000). The one time it's missed and cost me occurred when I had to call a flop bet with an overcard to my jacks and fold on the turn. It goes without saying that I'm hoping for an AJ9 like flop.
Dealer turns over the flop and the first card shown is a J. He spreads out the rest of the flop and it's JJ7. Yowzers! The blind checks and looks somewhat disinterested, but villain thinks a while about betting but checks. Usually, I'm not in favor of slow playing flopped boats/quads because it's unlikely that you'll get any action unless people think you're bluffing. Given that I was the preflop raiser, I should be expected to c-bet any/most flops, so checking it almost always limits the upside to getting only 1 bet called. However, in this case, villain spent a while thinking about betting into me that I actually thinks he has a had, so I check to appear that I want to pot control against him.
Turn is a blank (meaning lower than a 7). Blind checks and villain bets around 35 into the pot of 60. I call, blind folds.
River is unimportant. Villain checks, so it becomes relatively clear he's likely check-calling his medium pockets (that may or may not be higher than 77). I could easily have been repping AK/AQ that floated his turn, so I ponder what the ideal amount to bet is in this case. The pot is around 130 at this point, so I bet 55. I think the 55 bet looks like the "I'm trying to get your 22/33/44 to fold" bet, or in other words, low-risk but high-reward bluff. Sure AK still has showdown value, but it's become pretty clear that villain has pockets (and he should be aware that it's clear) and that enough of his range is 22-44 for me to "bluff" 55 to win 130. He calls and I show my second quads of the night. He says nice hand and mentioned that I bet the max amount that he could have called.
Shortly thereafter, I run into a hand against one of the short-stacked bad players at the table.
-Hand #5-
Again there's a straddle (this time of 10). There are a couple of calls to villain, who sits two seats to my right in middle position, and he raises to 40, with about 100 behind. I wake up with AKo (which at this action-filled table is a monster. I briefly consider reraising (essentially putting villain all-in at least) but decide against it. My reasoning is that given his play (very straight foward but involves grossly overvaluing his hands), if he has a big pocket and I flop my overcard, he still might pay me off, and if he checks a low flop, then he probably has AQ that will fold to my flop bet. However, if he bets into me on a low flop, I can be fairly certain he has an overpair and then I can get away. Anyways, I call and so does another short stack in the blinds (which leaves him with 30 behind).
Flop is K high. Both guys check to me and I bet 35, just enough to put the short stack all in, and very small compared to the pot size (less than 1/3 of the pot), but as I detailed earlier, I like to bet 1/3 the stack of the villain. Super short stack folds and villain calls.
Turn is a blank. He checks again and I put him all in for his last 65. He complains for a while that he has to call (which means I'm obviously good) and he does.
River is another blank and I show my TPTK. Villain flashes his hand to the guy next to him, who later tells us he had QQ. I ended up playing that hand perfectly given the opponent, but again, it always helps to hit.
This hand leaves me at slightly over 400, and up over 100 after the dinner break. Then come 2 hands that leave me slightly tilted.
-Hand #6-
There's again a straddle of 10. There's around 4 calls to me, and I wake up with KK. I usually don't like to raise much more than 3x the straddle/open, but given the number of calls so far, I make it 40, thinking that it's already on the large side. Cutoff cold calls, which starts the long string of 7 or so calls.
Flop is AQ8. Checks around to me and I of course have to give up on the hand. Cutoff shoves for 200+ into the pot of around 280. The super short stack in the previous hand calls for his last 15 or so, and everyone else folds to me. As I'm the last player to act, I flip over my kings and complain that "of course the ace hits." While JJ is probably my favorite hand, KK has got to be my least favorite. An Ace has hit the flop a disproportionate number of times when I've had KK, and even when it hasn't, I've got beaten by 1) a flush, and 2) a straight with 73o. Anyways, cutoff turns over AK (duh) and super short stack shows JT. Another player comments that it sucks for the JT that he now only has 5 outs as I've shown my KK.
Turn is a blank, and the river is the case king. What ended up being frustrating for me (and irrationally so) is not that I ended up losing with pocket kings, but that 1) I always lose with pocket kings, 2) 7 people called my 40 open (so even had the ace not hit, I might not be looking that great), and 3) I would have won a $600+ pot had the board come in reverse (K38). This hand doesn't really put a dent into my monetary state, but it does mess with my state of mind.
Shortly thereafter, I've rebuilt my stack to almost 400 again, when the next hand occurs.
-Hand #7-
I'm in the small blind and there's a live straddle of 5. Villain is UTG+1 and calls, and there are only 2-3 more calls to me. Villain is an old white guy (about 50 years old), so he definitely doesn't seem like the kind to limp-raise or even limp-call with big pockets. I wake up with 79o and decide to try a steal once again by raising to 18. Villain definitely is most likely going to call, but that's fine with me if I can isolate him and c-bet all tame flops since he most likely has 2 relatively high cards or suited connectors. If he has mid-pockets, that sucks but I'll still be able to reevaluate on the turn assuming he calls my flop c-bet. As predicted, only villain calls.
Flop comes 962 with 2 clubs. I have the 9 of clubs, which is somewhat noteworthy, because that eliminates 98/T9 of clubs from his range. I c-bet about 30 into the pot of 50. He calls, and I'm almost certain he has a flush draw (probably with 2 overs though).
Turn is a non-club K. I think a lot of players would advocate betting the turn, because he would have to have the K-high flush draw to have me beat, so I'm most likely still ahead and have around 70% equity (i.e. 9+3+3=15 outs for him). However, I like to think of the turn as a way to obtain information. I doubt he's folding his flush draw in position on the turn, so he's always going to call me turn bet. However, by checking, I gain information if he checks back, which would indicate he doesn't have the K-high flush draw, and also probably lowers the chances his range includes very high cards (meaning AQ clubs, AJ clubs, etc) because I obviously don't have a K so those hands still have overcards in addition to the flush draw, and might want to get my weak pockets (88 and lower) to fold now. Unfortunately, he bets around 40 which tells me absolutely nothing because just the flush draw often bets the turn after the pre-flop raiser and flop better checks the turn (i.e. I could have AQ without the flush draw and he can steal the pot right there).
River is another non-club K, which is probably the worst card in the deck for me (in hindsight of course) given that I check and he bets 75. Now, the only hand that beats me is the K-high flush draw. QQ might bet there because I clearly don't have AA so QQ might be value-betting my JJ/TT/9. JJ and lower can't value the river, because a decent enough portion of my range is QQ (QQ is more likely for me than TT). Besides, the overpair possibly raises me on the flop, so it's even less likely that villain has a pair tens and higher. So in short, villain has to have a missed flush draw, but it's just not clear if the missed flush draw includes one of the last 2 kings. I have too much of his range beat so I call, and he shows KJ clubs. I show my 9 and say nice hand and that I had to call.
This hand leaves me back down for the half-session after dinner at around 250. I rebuild my stack back to around 300 for the last hand before Joe and I agreed on leaving for the night.
-Hand #8-
Joe already knows the details of this hand, but for my other reader(s) out there, I want to make this hand summary a little more interesting, by not revealing too much information. I'm UTG+1 and there are two villains in this hand. One is an old man who's clearly a novice (and not necessarily the kind that just doesn't have optimal strategy, but that clearly has played poker less in his entire life than I have just this year) and he's sitting in middle position. The other villain is one of the aforementioned big stacks, who's now sitting directly to my right after I changed seats (just to be right after him) so he's UTG in this particular hand and he straddles 6. Both players have me covered at the start of the hand.
I have QT hearts. I limp, which is somewhat debatable but everyone's had to open up their ranges due to the sheer number of players that have been seeing the flop at this table. There's an early position raise to 16 by a donk. Old villain reraises to 40 and UTG villain postures for a while and calls. I was going to fold had UTG villain folded, but given their stack sizes, I call.
Flop is 652 with 2 hearts. UTG villain and I both check, and old villain bets 50 into the pot of ~140. UTG villain calls, and I call. What do you think both villains have at this point?
Turn is a non heart 3. UTG villain and I both check again, and old villain again bets 50. UTG villain calls, and so do I. Depending on your reads of both villains at this point, my call may or may not have been good.
River is a non-heart 6. UTG villain checks. What do you think both villains have now? I bluff shove for 160 more. (Highlight the following block of text for the result of the hand).
-Summary-
Time at the tables: 5 hours
Poker: +$373
Gas and food: ~ -$20
Net: ~ +$355
-On record career to date-
Time at the tables: 8.75 hours
Poker: ~ -$27
Net: ~ -$65
Brags: It seems I've been able to translate my elite hi-card skills to poker flops (I've been known to win an estimated 60% of my hi-card games). Plus, I play almost perfectly when I do run hot (i.e. I extract max value for my big hands and don't leak any money away unnecessarily).
Beats: I tried to bluff a bad player off an overpair for the second time in my career (the prior mistake was not as egregious though).
Variance: For the second time at Charles Town, I ended up losing a significant amount after being up more than $600 after a couple of hours. Luckily, unlike last time, I didn't go from being +$700 to being -$400. Also, it seems not so coincidentally that this other session was also the one I tried to bluff a bad player off an overpair. Note to self: You're not invincible, even when it may seem like it.
This past Saturday, I went with Joe Hsu to Charles Town. We got there at around 2:40 and only had to wait ~20 minutes (a waiting list of 10 people), and the list blew up afterwords. Clearly, there's utility to be had from simply arriving half an hour earlier than I usually do. We requested separate tables, as usual, and the first table I joined was one of the softer tables ever in my brief poker career. Plus, it never hurts to run like the sun.
I buy-in for my customary first 200. Sadly, there were so many memorable hands throughout the night that I ended up forgetting many of them. In short, this first table was so extremely loose passive that I never once had to worry about being raised, and that's an unbelievable feeling. Because of the overwhelming table passivity, I began straddling every UTG hand (unfortunately, Charles Town doesn't do button straddles), knowing that the only time my straddle would ever be raised was by AA, KK, QQ, JJ, AK, and oftentimes still not raised by these hands. The first memorable hand actually occurs on another player's straddle.
-Hand #1-
Villain sits UTG and straddles to 7 with about 150 behind (side note: I've never understood the > minimum straddle. To me, the entire purpose of the straddle is to buy the option, and unless you're super stacked and simply trying to increase the pot size--which almost all of these players who straddle big aren't--it's a weekly dominated strategy). I haven't been at the table long enough to have a specific read on villain, but he is a relatively young (i.e. <30) and relatively buff Hispanic guy, and without individual reads, it's essential to stereotype (young+buff+Hispanic => a macho calling station that would much rather call off a value bet than fold to a bluff). There are 3-4 callers. It's important now to note that this field has been leaving so much dead money on the table, because the majority of the limps, even to straddles, are with marginal hands that fold immediately to a raise. I realize that while villain most likely will over-call post-flop bets, he still won't play the majority of his preflop hands (anything that's not T+T+ or a medium connector), and I'm 80% sure that all of the limpers are folding, so this is a very profitable stealing opportunity, especially with my tight table image atm (I'd barely played any hands for half an hour). I entirely intend to raise all hands in my small blind, but I obviously look anyways to try to exude strength when I do raise. I wake up with J5o. I raise to 21, thinking I'm investing 21 with about a 50% chance of winning 28-35 immediately, with the plan to only continue postflop if I hit. Villain calls 14 more and everyone else fold.
Pot is ~70 to a flop of Jxx rainbow. I now fully expect to continue in this hand to showdown (unless I'm raised on the flop). Villain now has ~130 behind and in hands where I'm trying to eventually extract an all-in, I try to bet about 1/3 of villain's stack (assuming 1/3 of his stack is a reasonable bet relative to the pot). I do just that and bet 40. Villain thinks and calls.
Turn is another blank. I now bet 55 knowing he can't flat call over half of his stack and predictably, he shoves. I insta-call.
River is a Q. I show my jacks and he mucks. It seems like he probably had a pocket lower than J but higher than middle pair on the flop. I think I played this hand perfectly, but of course, it never hurts to hit.
Now, the table is murmuring about how this kid can possibly be raising J5, and this is almost always a great table image to have. I fully expected to be seeing more action on my raises, so I narrowed my preflop raising range even further (i.e. suited connectors were now limps). Instead though (and I realized this after the table folded to my 3-bet raises with AA--my first in over 5 sessions-- and AK), they simply became afraid of me, and while this treatment isn't as great as the maniacal image that I'd expected, it still made their moves much more readable and predictable. Not soon after the J5 hand was probably the only hand I did not play perfectly before the dinner break.
-Hand #2-
Villain is in early position and is a middle-aged Asian guy. Usually, I'd expect middle-aged Asian players to be very tight (usually passive as well), but it became clear afterwords (and to some extent, even before this hand) that he was not as disciplined whatsoever. I believe he'd opened a hand with A8o in early position prior to the current hand (i.e. the novice strategy of any ace is a good hand), and I'd seen him call to showdown top pair with a middling kicker. This description of villain is what makes the following play especially questionable, but my move was most likely incorrect against any generic opponent.
Villain limps early position. There are a couple more limps and I wake up with KQ hearts in the cutoff. I raise to 13 and two players, including villain, call.
Flop is KT5 rainbow, with one heart. Checks around to me, I bet 26 into the pot of 39, only villain calls.
Turn is a blank heart. Villain pretty quickly bets into me 45. I'm entirely befuddled at this point, because this move is usually a strong signal of strength for optimally-behaving opponents. Note that one of my flaws that I've mentioned I need to work on is an ability to realize that bad players don't play optimally (seems simple but somehow evades me during the actual hands). I'd been working on this flaw and it seems to have improved, but this hand demonstrates that it hasn't been fixed entirely. At this point, I'm irrationally afraid that I'm way behind (i.e. set). Against good players, I should either be raising (if there aren't big implied stacks behind, to take control against marginal hands that have me currently beat, like AK or two pair) or calling (if the implied stacks are huge, in hopes of raising a river heart). Even against bad players, I should be calling confidently, because I'm more often than not still ahead on the turn (raising becomes suboptimal because they're likely to push AK/two pair, and they'll pay off the river with worse kings if I just call). I do call, but unfortunately, not confidently.
River is a blank. Villain checks, and because I'd put him on a big hand on the turn, I check. There are two mistakes with this move. 1) The river check is a HUGE sign of weakness (he can't expect me to bet into him for the most part, so he almost always isn't check-raising), and I oftentimes have trouble updating my information when I'm previously confident about a read (i.e. I'm a stubborn SOB). 2) As I mentioned earlier, I simply shouldn't have narrowed his range to primarily hands that beat me. In hindsight, the river check eliminates all sets and two pairs, so he either has a K or he has QJ. There's almost nothing else he can have. Because there's no way he's check-raising here (especially since he's not a thinking player), there's no harm in betting into QJ and having it fold (i.e. I'm not risking getting check-raise bluffed here). So the only difference between checking and betting the river is against villain's kings. AK will possibly bet the river (say at least 30% of the time), so that decreases the chances of AK further. What other hands could he have? He could have KQ (for a chop, against whom betting is a weakly dominant strategy), KJ, KT, or even possibly K9s. AK definitely calls a river bet, but the other kings almost always do as well. With the possibility that AK still bets the river, AK is a much smaller portion of his range, and I'm clearing missing out on EV by not betting. And of course, he does have KJ. There was somewhat similar hand I played against a different opponent where I'd gotten bet into when I'd flopped top pair (I believe this occurred on the flop though). However, this other hand was probably played correctly (i.e. checking behind the following street(s)) as I had a marginal kicker (I'd flopped jacks with JT and he ended up showing middle pair, so he'd probably have folded anything that I could beat).
I slowly build my chip stack to the overwhelming big stack (~600) with hands that I'm sure were interesting but that I can no longer recall. A lot of them involved flopping top pair though (I wasn't necessarily getting great preflop hands, but I was simply hitting almost every hand that I was playing and missing most of the ones I wasn't), demonstrating just how hot I was running . So does the following hand.
-Hand #3-
Middle-aged Asian guy from the previous hand is again the villain. By now, I definitely have realized that he's not a good player, which influences how I played this hand. I'm in the small blind and villain raises the straddle. There's 1-2 calls to me and I call with 7-8.
Flop comes 776. I check to villain to maximize EV if he does have a large pair. He bets, I call.
Turn is a blank (i.e. doesn't complete the straight draw). I check and he checks behind.
River is the case 7. It's obvious he either has a big pair or 2 over cards that missed and c-bet the flop. Given how bad he is though, he's almost guaranteed to call any river bet with an overpair (warning: I unfortunately don't realize this and I mistakenly bluff away in a subsequent hand). I overbet him allin (slightly more than the pot). He calls. I show him my quads and he leaves.
I eventually build my stack to 873 before Joe and I decide to take a dinner break. Joe mentions to me that Michael Phelps was there at the 1-2 tables, which is kinda cool. Apparently, he was waiting on the list just like any other player and didn't make a big deal about being super rich and famous. I kind of wish I'd gotten a chance to switch to his table just to, you know, meet the guy, but this was still the closest I've ever been to a famous person. Anyways, we come back from dinner an hour later, which allows me to buy in for any amount (instead of having to play with 873), so I start with my customary 200. My new table is eons better than my previous one; there are still a few bad players but there are enough good players with big stacks that you can't simply expect to roll over everyone. Joe's mentioned to me that he doesn't think people in general table switch enough, and while I tend to agree with that sentiment, it doesn't necessarily apply as strictly to me because it's as much about the learning experience at this point for me as it is about the literal EV. Long story short, I'm happy to be getting some actual poker experience in at this new table.
I start off the same way I'd left--hitting every flop. Unfortunately, hitting flops isn't always great. One hand, I flopped top pair second kicker (KT) OOP and my c-bet got raised. There was indeed a flush draw out there, but my read on my opponent was that he had an actual made hand (which in fact could have been simply JT) but it wasn't worth it for me to probably have to call 1-2 more streets OOP. On another hand, I flopped an ace with A7s in the small blind against the button raiser (after a straddle), and he ended up betting the flop and turn and I was forced to fold on the turn after the third card to a flush hit. These two hands left me down slightly less than 100 so I added on another 100. Almost immediately comes the next interesting hand (well, not so much interesting as noteworthy).
-Hand #4-
This table has featured 2-3 decent big stacks who've been straddling decently large (between 6 and 10) to increase preflop sizes and overall action. This hand occurs on one of their straddles. Villain is the other big stack and calls UTG, and 1-2 more calls to me in late position. I wake up with JJ. I raise to ~20 (assuming the straddle was 6). Villain and one of the blinds join me to the flop. Note that JJ is by far my favorite hand, because I've almost always hit my J set, and it's almost always paid me off (my net profit with JJ might be somewhere between 500 and 1000). The one time it's missed and cost me occurred when I had to call a flop bet with an overcard to my jacks and fold on the turn. It goes without saying that I'm hoping for an AJ9 like flop.
Dealer turns over the flop and the first card shown is a J. He spreads out the rest of the flop and it's JJ7. Yowzers! The blind checks and looks somewhat disinterested, but villain thinks a while about betting but checks. Usually, I'm not in favor of slow playing flopped boats/quads because it's unlikely that you'll get any action unless people think you're bluffing. Given that I was the preflop raiser, I should be expected to c-bet any/most flops, so checking it almost always limits the upside to getting only 1 bet called. However, in this case, villain spent a while thinking about betting into me that I actually thinks he has a had, so I check to appear that I want to pot control against him.
Turn is a blank (meaning lower than a 7). Blind checks and villain bets around 35 into the pot of 60. I call, blind folds.
River is unimportant. Villain checks, so it becomes relatively clear he's likely check-calling his medium pockets (that may or may not be higher than 77). I could easily have been repping AK/AQ that floated his turn, so I ponder what the ideal amount to bet is in this case. The pot is around 130 at this point, so I bet 55. I think the 55 bet looks like the "I'm trying to get your 22/33/44 to fold" bet, or in other words, low-risk but high-reward bluff. Sure AK still has showdown value, but it's become pretty clear that villain has pockets (and he should be aware that it's clear) and that enough of his range is 22-44 for me to "bluff" 55 to win 130. He calls and I show my second quads of the night. He says nice hand and mentioned that I bet the max amount that he could have called.
Shortly thereafter, I run into a hand against one of the short-stacked bad players at the table.
-Hand #5-
Again there's a straddle (this time of 10). There are a couple of calls to villain, who sits two seats to my right in middle position, and he raises to 40, with about 100 behind. I wake up with AKo (which at this action-filled table is a monster. I briefly consider reraising (essentially putting villain all-in at least) but decide against it. My reasoning is that given his play (very straight foward but involves grossly overvaluing his hands), if he has a big pocket and I flop my overcard, he still might pay me off, and if he checks a low flop, then he probably has AQ that will fold to my flop bet. However, if he bets into me on a low flop, I can be fairly certain he has an overpair and then I can get away. Anyways, I call and so does another short stack in the blinds (which leaves him with 30 behind).
Flop is K high. Both guys check to me and I bet 35, just enough to put the short stack all in, and very small compared to the pot size (less than 1/3 of the pot), but as I detailed earlier, I like to bet 1/3 the stack of the villain. Super short stack folds and villain calls.
Turn is a blank. He checks again and I put him all in for his last 65. He complains for a while that he has to call (which means I'm obviously good) and he does.
River is another blank and I show my TPTK. Villain flashes his hand to the guy next to him, who later tells us he had QQ. I ended up playing that hand perfectly given the opponent, but again, it always helps to hit.
This hand leaves me at slightly over 400, and up over 100 after the dinner break. Then come 2 hands that leave me slightly tilted.
-Hand #6-
There's again a straddle of 10. There's around 4 calls to me, and I wake up with KK. I usually don't like to raise much more than 3x the straddle/open, but given the number of calls so far, I make it 40, thinking that it's already on the large side. Cutoff cold calls, which starts the long string of 7 or so calls.
Flop is AQ8. Checks around to me and I of course have to give up on the hand. Cutoff shoves for 200+ into the pot of around 280. The super short stack in the previous hand calls for his last 15 or so, and everyone else folds to me. As I'm the last player to act, I flip over my kings and complain that "of course the ace hits." While JJ is probably my favorite hand, KK has got to be my least favorite. An Ace has hit the flop a disproportionate number of times when I've had KK, and even when it hasn't, I've got beaten by 1) a flush, and 2) a straight with 73o. Anyways, cutoff turns over AK (duh) and super short stack shows JT. Another player comments that it sucks for the JT that he now only has 5 outs as I've shown my KK.
Turn is a blank, and the river is the case king. What ended up being frustrating for me (and irrationally so) is not that I ended up losing with pocket kings, but that 1) I always lose with pocket kings, 2) 7 people called my 40 open (so even had the ace not hit, I might not be looking that great), and 3) I would have won a $600+ pot had the board come in reverse (K38). This hand doesn't really put a dent into my monetary state, but it does mess with my state of mind.
Shortly thereafter, I've rebuilt my stack to almost 400 again, when the next hand occurs.
-Hand #7-
I'm in the small blind and there's a live straddle of 5. Villain is UTG+1 and calls, and there are only 2-3 more calls to me. Villain is an old white guy (about 50 years old), so he definitely doesn't seem like the kind to limp-raise or even limp-call with big pockets. I wake up with 79o and decide to try a steal once again by raising to 18. Villain definitely is most likely going to call, but that's fine with me if I can isolate him and c-bet all tame flops since he most likely has 2 relatively high cards or suited connectors. If he has mid-pockets, that sucks but I'll still be able to reevaluate on the turn assuming he calls my flop c-bet. As predicted, only villain calls.
Flop comes 962 with 2 clubs. I have the 9 of clubs, which is somewhat noteworthy, because that eliminates 98/T9 of clubs from his range. I c-bet about 30 into the pot of 50. He calls, and I'm almost certain he has a flush draw (probably with 2 overs though).
Turn is a non-club K. I think a lot of players would advocate betting the turn, because he would have to have the K-high flush draw to have me beat, so I'm most likely still ahead and have around 70% equity (i.e. 9+3+3=15 outs for him). However, I like to think of the turn as a way to obtain information. I doubt he's folding his flush draw in position on the turn, so he's always going to call me turn bet. However, by checking, I gain information if he checks back, which would indicate he doesn't have the K-high flush draw, and also probably lowers the chances his range includes very high cards (meaning AQ clubs, AJ clubs, etc) because I obviously don't have a K so those hands still have overcards in addition to the flush draw, and might want to get my weak pockets (88 and lower) to fold now. Unfortunately, he bets around 40 which tells me absolutely nothing because just the flush draw often bets the turn after the pre-flop raiser and flop better checks the turn (i.e. I could have AQ without the flush draw and he can steal the pot right there).
River is another non-club K, which is probably the worst card in the deck for me (in hindsight of course) given that I check and he bets 75. Now, the only hand that beats me is the K-high flush draw. QQ might bet there because I clearly don't have AA so QQ might be value-betting my JJ/TT/9. JJ and lower can't value the river, because a decent enough portion of my range is QQ (QQ is more likely for me than TT). Besides, the overpair possibly raises me on the flop, so it's even less likely that villain has a pair tens and higher. So in short, villain has to have a missed flush draw, but it's just not clear if the missed flush draw includes one of the last 2 kings. I have too much of his range beat so I call, and he shows KJ clubs. I show my 9 and say nice hand and that I had to call.
This hand leaves me back down for the half-session after dinner at around 250. I rebuild my stack back to around 300 for the last hand before Joe and I agreed on leaving for the night.
-Hand #8-
Joe already knows the details of this hand, but for my other reader(s) out there, I want to make this hand summary a little more interesting, by not revealing too much information. I'm UTG+1 and there are two villains in this hand. One is an old man who's clearly a novice (and not necessarily the kind that just doesn't have optimal strategy, but that clearly has played poker less in his entire life than I have just this year) and he's sitting in middle position. The other villain is one of the aforementioned big stacks, who's now sitting directly to my right after I changed seats (just to be right after him) so he's UTG in this particular hand and he straddles 6. Both players have me covered at the start of the hand.
I have QT hearts. I limp, which is somewhat debatable but everyone's had to open up their ranges due to the sheer number of players that have been seeing the flop at this table. There's an early position raise to 16 by a donk. Old villain reraises to 40 and UTG villain postures for a while and calls. I was going to fold had UTG villain folded, but given their stack sizes, I call.
Flop is 652 with 2 hearts. UTG villain and I both check, and old villain bets 50 into the pot of ~140. UTG villain calls, and I call. What do you think both villains have at this point?
Turn is a non heart 3. UTG villain and I both check again, and old villain again bets 50. UTG villain calls, and so do I. Depending on your reads of both villains at this point, my call may or may not have been good.
River is a non-heart 6. UTG villain checks. What do you think both villains have now? I bluff shove for 160 more. (Highlight the following block of text for the result of the hand).
Old villain calls, while exclaiming that he has to. UTG villain now says that he knows he has me beat and that I'm simply making a move, but that the only thing old villain can have is KK or AA. So he folds, grudgingly. Old villain flips over KK. UTG villain says he folded JJ.
Now, I don't understand why it took UTG villain that long to fold. I thought it was painfully obvious from the flop that old villain had AA/KK. Unfortunately, I made 3 errors in judgment.
1) Probably the most egregious error is that I thought I could bluff a bad player off of his overpair. I realized at the time that I didn't have much of a story (given how I played, the only two possible hands I could have had that would have AA/KK beat is 44/54). Any flopped set/65 has to raise the flop with the flush draw there. I realized that. But my reasoning was that old villain was a bad player and he wouldn't understand the lack of a story. However, for the same reason he wouldn't realize the lack of a story, he also wouldn't be able to fold an overpair there. This is actually the second time I've tried to bluff a bad player off of an obvious overpair, and unfortunately I hadn't learned my lesson the first time. (To be fair, in that hand, I had 33 on a flop of 652 in position. Villain bet larger than the pot on the flop. I ask him why he's betting so big, which I think very reasonably repped A6. The turn missed, he bet, I called. The river was another 6. He checked and I bet about 120 into a pot of 250. He calls instantly and shows JJ. The mistake there was that a. a bad player is check calling there, and b. even if a bad player might fold, he's not doing it to "such a small bet." At least in that case, my story made sense so that if in fact the villain was a better player, it may have worked. In this case though, I don't think anyone can fold AA/KK.)
2) I mistakenly placed UTG villain on only the nut flush draw by the river. Sure, that was probably the most reasonable hand, because I would have folded QQ/JJ/TT/etc earlier (on the turn), especially with it obvious that old villain had AA/KK and me clearly chasing a flush draw. Unfortunately, not everyone behaves how I think they should optimally behave, even when they're good players. UTG villain definitely was at least a good player, but moreso because he was a thinking player that could reason what other players had (i.e. that I wasn't telling a believable story). However, that doesn't mean thinking players necessarily act as they probably should. I'd realized that UTG villain would know I didn't have much of a story but because I placed him on only a missed flush draw, he wouldn't be able to call, because I easily could have had a 4 along with my flush draw, or simply been playing a pocket pair incorrectly. He probably SHOULD have called me with Ace high anyways, but I don't think any player at this level would be able to. So if he indeed does also have the missed flush draw, then I think he folds regardless. Of course, my mistake was placing too much confidence on my read that he had the missed flush draw.
3) Based on my read from 2, why was I still in the hand after the turn? The flop call is fine, because UTG villain probably calls all overpairs there, but even the flop call should have me suspicious. By the turn, I'd already put UTG villain on the nut flush draw, so I should have been out. Now, the caveat is that my read of UTG villain SHOULD have included overpairs, so had I made that connection, the turn call is fine (calling 50 to win at least 370 with the chance at more, assuming old villain calls my river shove with the flush). So this mistake by itself isn't a mistake. But the reason I ended up bluffing the river involves thinking that UTG villain could only have the nut flush draw, so I should never be both calling the turn and bluffing the river. This was so painfully obvious but for some reason, I chose to ignore the angel sitting on my right shoulder telling me not to bluff. That damned sinister shoulder!
My parents and my closest friends have probably realized it by now, but I often end up being stubborn to a fault. It's likely a good thing in generic situations because I'm often right, and there's enough randomness involved in the world that evidence against my opinions isn't necessarily accurate. But there's definitely a fine line between tenacious and simply inflexible that I've yet to locate. It might not make sense, but I now realize that for one reason or another, I was determined to win this last hand from the start, and it ended up clouding my judgment. It also isn't the first time (or the second, or the third, or the...) that I've lost relatively big pots either from bluffing or from chasing without enough odds on the hand that I'd predetermined to be my final one of the night. Maybe there's a connection there, and that's something I'll definitely need to control in the future. I definitely should have been able to save that final 160.
-Summary-
Time at the tables: 5 hours
Poker: +$373
Gas and food: ~ -$20
Net: ~ +$355
-On record career to date-
Time at the tables: 8.75 hours
Poker: ~ -$27
Net: ~ -$65
Brags: It seems I've been able to translate my elite hi-card skills to poker flops (I've been known to win an estimated 60% of my hi-card games). Plus, I play almost perfectly when I do run hot (i.e. I extract max value for my big hands and don't leak any money away unnecessarily).
Beats: I tried to bluff a bad player off an overpair for the second time in my career (the prior mistake was not as egregious though).
Variance: For the second time at Charles Town, I ended up losing a significant amount after being up more than $600 after a couple of hours. Luckily, unlike last time, I didn't go from being +$700 to being -$400. Also, it seems not so coincidentally that this other session was also the one I tried to bluff a bad player off an overpair. Note to self: You're not invincible, even when it may seem like it.
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