Day 6:
I played a couple more days during my break at Bay 101, primarily 1-2-2 but also a 315+15 tourny. The first night, I generally played well (with a few bad mistakes mixed in). There was one guy at the table who just kept hitting sets, not just against me but against everyone. That put me slightly off my game because 1) on one hand, I couldn't believe that he had a set again, and 2) I became overly focused on trying to take his money (because he had a huge stack and wasn't a good player whatsoever). So while I made very nice plays for most of the night, I ended up losing two relatively significant hands, with one of them against the Set Machine.
-Hand #1-
The actual details of the hand are a bit fuzzy now (i.e. the exact flop, my exact hole cards, the exact action, etc.) but the general gist of the hand contains lessons about my game that I can learn from. For a little background about the Set Machine: 1) he loved his pocket pairs (to the extent that he'd 3-bet consistently with 77, for example, and he'd never limp with them; 2) hands that I might actually raise with in position (like suited connectors), he'd actually limp, so to my knowledge, his preflop opening/raising range was limited to pocket pairs and AK/AQ/KQ/maybe AJ (basically, high cards); 3) I hadn't seen him actually bluff in any hand up to that point (where bluff in this case is primarily limited to river bluffs, as he'd try to steal a pot on prior streets once in a while, and then if it didn't work, he'd shut down).
I have KQ or KJ suited in early position. I limp (I'm a big stack myself at this point, and if there's something I learned--which unfortunately I forgot to apply in my latest session--it's that you don't want to build pots early with non-nut-drawing hands OOP), Set Machine raises on the button, one of the blinds calls, and so do I.
Flop comes 972 with a flush draw for me (this probably wasn't the exact flop but it approximates the action anyways). The blind and I check to the raiser, who surprisingly checks behind.
Turn is a blank. Blind checks again, so I now bet about 30 into the pot of 45 with my two overs and the flush draw. Set machine calls and the blind folds.
River is a non flush-draw hitting Ace. I check, having given up on the hand, but Set Machine bets 60. Now I'm thinking, the A is the highest pair on the board, but he'd have to have floated me with Ace high, and I don't think Set Machine is capable of that play. He could have spiked two pair on the turn/river, which might make some sense, but Set Machine probably isn't raising preflop with the hands that might have two pair on this board (A9 is probably the lowest end of what he might raise preflop with and A9 is betting the flop). I actually ask him aloud if he flopped a set, as that's the only hand that makes sense (he couldn't have turned a set, because he's consistently c-bet his pocket pairs on any board, meaning he would have bet the flop in this case). I'm thinking he either has a set or a missed draw, and my K high beats any other missed draw, so I call. He shows 77 and I muck.
In hindsight, I probably made 3 mistakes in this hand. 1) I subconsciously fell victim to Michael Fan probability (which states that for a repeating random event, if one outcome has occurred more often than expected, it will occur less often than expected in the future), which by definition is of course erroneous. In this case, it meant that although I hadn't seen him bluff, everyone has to bluff, and I thought that this was as likely a case as any. 2) Set machine's preflop raising range, given my information, was very restrictive. Basically, any hand that he'd raise preflop has me beat on the river. Even if he was drawing like me, he could have had the nut flush draw and spiked an Ace. 3) K-high doesn't beat many bluffs that would have called the turn. The only thing would be a straight draw or a lower flush draw, but given mistake #2, that's extremely unlikely. As a result, I needed him to be bluffing at least 30% of the time (he's actually unlikely to be bluffing with something that I can beat because there's no way he has lower than second pair) to justify a river call, and I think there's maybe a 10% chance he's bluffing, with most of that a potential result of him widening his preflop raising range on the button (but he hadn't shown any indication that he was capable of that).
This hand didn't actually cost me much, but it left me utterly frustrated with my own play and my general inability to win any pots against the Set Machine. This might have led to the following hand (which occurred about 30 minutes later).
-Hand #2-
Villain is an extremely tight player. He's solid in the sense that he doesn't overrate his hands whatsoever, but at the same time, that means he's easily pushed around. I'd won about 2-3 mid-sized pots against him simply by bullying him. Anyways, in this hand, he's UTG and limps for 4 (which is the minimum "open"), with about 250 behind. Everyone surprisingly folds to me in the big blind, and I wake up with QQ. I make it 18 and he calls.
Flop is Q9x rainbow. I check my top set, and he checks behind.
Turn is a 10 that now puts a flush draw out there. I check again, thinking there's no benefit in building the pot OOP when I can get no information from villain if he calls my bet. He actually ends up betting 25 and I call. My reasoning here is that I can't raise (to something like 75) when he has around 175 behind as I would be committing myself to the pot and forced to call if the flush hits the river. Notice that I'd been focusing especially on the flush.
River is a non-flush 8. Thinking I'm out of the woods, I value-bet 50. Villain shoves on top and I insta-call. He shows me J9 for the straight, and I'm clearly confused as I didn't see the 4-to-a-straight on the board. I actually don't know where I played that hand incorrectly (other than not seeing the 4-to a straight, which had I seen, I probably should have value-bet smaller and folded to a raise). Should I have bet the flop? Probably, but it wouldn't have changed the outcome of this hand (JT/J9 are both calling the flop and then the turn), although it would have maximized my winnings had the straight missed. The flop just seemed so tame (and I didn't think that given his style, villain would have limped UTG with J9 and called my preflop raise heads up; he did claim afterwards that he never should have played that hand). I thought for sure he had a medium pocket pair, and I was hoping to give him more cards to set up as well. Should I have raised the turn? Unless I'm shipping, I don't think so, and I definitely don't think I should be shipping such a strong hand heads up for more than the pot. Should I have maybe bet smaller on the river (assuming I did see the straight possibility)? Probably, but I don't think villain played optimally by raising there either. Given that he should know I'm a solid player, more than 95% of the time that I'm calling his ship, I have at least a J and probably even KJ (I think my J-range there is only AJ/KJ eplit equally as QJ probably c-bets the flop), meaning the only way I'm calling with a hand that he has beat is if I made a mistake (as I did by not seeing the straight). Anyways, this hand ended up ruining an otherwise profitable and well-played night, as I leave up only 150 on the night.
Day 7:
I ended up playing in the 315+15 tourny (a special New Years Day buyin) as I couldn't resist the 10 grand first-place prize money. Unlike my previous two tries at the Bay 101 tournies, I think I played pretty optimally, but also unlike the previous two tries, I was very card dead. We started with 10k in chips, and I quickly won about 5k when my AQ flopped TPTK and villain bluffed his missed draw on the river. I hovered around this mark (as I was card dead) for the good part of 4-5 levels (or about 1.5-2 hours) until the one hand that I may have misplayed (but I don't think I did).
-Hand #3-
Blinds are at 300-600 with some ante (75?). I wake up UTG+1 with AQ suited and open for 1.5k. Folds around to the short stack who ships for about 5k total. I'm thinking short stack can be shipping almost anything as he's at less than 10x the big blind, so he's probably shipping any pocket pair 55 or higher, AK/AQ/AJ/KQ. Because I think his range includes AJ and KQ to counteract AA/KK/QQ, I think I have to call for 3.5 more (even though it's for over a third of my stack). He shows AA and I miss my flopped flush draw. I don't think you can ever fold AQ suited (even early position) ever, and as usual, I raised small (which would have made a difference had a bigger stack shoved). And certainly, I don't think I can fold to 3.5k with a chance to win 8k, especially since I have some of his shipping range dominated (and I'm flipping with most of it). I was just an unfortunate victim of circumstance.
Then, I was literally card dead for over an hour (which given how wide my short stack shoving range is, that's saying something). I ended up down to 6k before moving to a new table. Just as I sat down, the now second short stack joked that he's happy he's no longer the short stack at the table, to which I responded that I wouldn't be there for long. The guy to my right looked at my chip stack and counted out 6k of his chips, saying that this substack of his was for me. Sure enough, on the first hand, he limped, I shipped with JJ, and he called with K5 of hearts. He flopped a 5, turned a flush draw, and then rivered another 5 to knock me out.
Afterwards, I ended up playing some more 1-2-2. I think I played well, but unfortunately, left only up 30 after 3-4 hours, partly a result of donating about 100 away in the last 30 minutes due to boredom (which is why I ended up leaving when I did). However, the one big hand that doomed me was the following.
-Hand #4-
I'd just had KK in the previous hand and 3-bet preflop and won. The guy who'd folded showed AK and I show him one of my K. The very next hand, I wake up middle position with KK again, and raise to 16. Villain is about 2 seats to my left (with about 200 behind), and he and two others call.
Flop is Q33 rainbow. I c-bet 35, and only villain calls.
Turn is a J. I bet 65 and he calls again.
River is a blank. I put him all-in for about 100 and he calls and shows 35o. I don't really have a problem with how I played this hand whatsoever. If villain wants to consistently see flops with 35o to a big preflop raise (especially with the stacks at the 1-2-2 limited by the 200 max buy-in), than he's going to be a losing player. More often than not, I'll have bad players calling me three streets with AQ, KQ, or QJ. As a result, I think it's more likely villain has a Q in that situation than anything that has me beat (QQ/JJ/a 3). Sure it became slightly more suspicious once he called the turn as well, but I don't think I'm folding the river if I check and he ships, so it's weakly dominant to bet the river. Maybe I can check the turn, but if he bets the turn, the hand is probably turning out the exact same way. I just don't think the outcome was avoidable once he called preflop.
Charles Town Session 4:
After a surprisingly long 4-day week at work, I was very much looking forward to playing poker this past weekend. I ended up arriving there later than I'd hoped, slightly before 3:00, but luckily I had to wait only about 40 minutes. I'd signed up for both the 1-2 and the 2-5 so I'd bought 360 in chips, intending to start with 360 at the 2-5 and 210 at the 1-2. My 1-2 spot came up at the same time as my 2-5 spot, so I decided to play 1-2, especially given how soft the 1-2 game is at Charles Town (I have no information yet on the 2-5 game there).
As planned, I sit down with 210. The table looks very soft, as most of the stacks are in the 100-200 range (and unlike the Bay 101 1-2-2 games, the small stacks at Charles Town are total fish). I lose about 50, add on 50 more, and then comes the first interesting hand of the night.
-Hand #5-
Villain is in the big blind is the one relatively solid player at the table (although his big stack the whole night is more a result of good cards than any special play). I'm on the button with a suited 1-gapper (let's say 75 of clubs for the sake of being able to detail the rest of the hand). There a number of limps and then someone in middle position raises to 10. About 5 of us see the flop.
Flop is 842 with two clubs. Villain leads for about 35 into the pot of 50. Everyone folds to me, and I call.
Turn is a 5. Villain bets around 50, and with a little more than 100 behind, I ship, at least 80% sure he's going to fold. If he does call, he probably has two pair, and I still have 14 outs (9 clubs, 3 non-club 6's, 2 5's). Predictably, he does fold and I win the pot. I've realized now that the one brief session I played at 2-5 has apparently taught me how profitable it can be to push players around with a low-medium stack (i.e. <200 at 1-2), given how few players play so aggressively at these stakes.
I slowly build my stack to around 550 through a combination of great aggressive play and good cards. About an hour and a half into the session, I again face off with the aforementioned villain.
-Hand #6-
At this point, villain still has me covered so our effective chip stacks are 550. I'd just recently gotten some of my preflop raises bet into and being forced to fold (I had AJ on the button to a flop of KK7) and this probably effects my play on this hand. I'm UTG+1 and villain is about 3 seats behind me. After UTG limps, I raise to 16 with AsQh, and villain and UTG call. I'm slightly on the fence about this preflop raise given my chip stack (AQo is not a good hand deep), but I still think it's fine given that the effective stack against most of the potential players at the table is still smaller than 200.
Flop is AJ6 with two hearts. After UTG checks, I c-bet 25, and villain raises to 80. Tired of getting pushed around, I call, and this flop call is by far the biggest mistake in the hand. Had 80 been an all-in, then my call is fine, but given our chip stacks, it's simply not worth it to call OOP there hoping that I simply have a better kicker (or that villain has a flush draw and that it misses).
Turn is a non-heart 9. I check, villain bets 100, and I call. Like I said, I'm not necessarily against this turn call, even in hindsight, as any hand he's raising the flop with probably is betting the turn (if anything to prevent me from betting the river). That means both a smaller ace and a flush draw are betting the turn (and his relatively small bet makes it seem like those hands are more likely).
River is another blank. I check again, and this time, villain bets 200. This ends up being my second biggest mistake in the hand. I end up overestimating how often players bluff big in 1-2 (which in actuality, is very very rarely). I keep thinking that the one hand he has is the missed flush draw, but it was probably a lot less likely on average, and specifically because of the player (who I hadn't seen bluff yet). I call and he shows his set of jacks. I muck disgustededly after losing the 4th biggest pot I've ever played. Like I said, I probably made two mistakes. 1) I should have folded the flop. No good can come of calling there. I think villain bets the turn with most of his hands. Anything that has me beat is betting the turn. A flush draw is most likely betting the turn (given that he'd raised the flop with it). A weaker Ace (like AT) might be betting the turn but probably is checking. Still, if I'm calling the flop, I'm calling the turn, as not much as changed. Basically, by calling the flop, I have to hope he has a weaker A (a flush draw isn't ideal either), and if he has a weaker A, I'm expecting to win just the 200 already in the pot after the flop. If I'm beat, I'm probably going to lose a lot more. As a result, don't call a flop reraise with just top pair given that I've only invested about 1/10th of my effective stack. 2) FOLD THE RIVER! I think if this hand were simply on a smaller scale, say only limps preflop, so the flop bet is 10, the flop reraise is 40, and the turn and river bets are 50 and 100 respectively, I probably would have folded on the river. But for some reason, I'm often too willing to gamble when the pots are huge.
This hand leaves me at about 150 (after buying in for 260) and after a few more hands, I add on a net 240 more (leaving my total buyin for the evening at an even 500). I slowly build my stack back up, through a combination of great play (if I say so myself) and the cards with which to execute those plays. I did end up sucking out a small stack when he ended up shipping 60 into a pot of around 40 on a flop of AJ3 rainbow. I had to call with AJ (because too many short stacks ship simply with top pair, I'd probably have called with AK and maybe AQ as well). He shows JJ and I turn one of my two outs to leave him drawing dead. Had I lost this hand, I would have lost a lot of my fondness for JJ, but since my loss earlier was more my fault than lady luck's, JJ is still my favorite hand. By my unofficial estimate, I've probably flopped sets (so not counting turns or rivers) with JJ about 5 out of 8 times, and 1-2 of the times I didn't, JJ still held up as an overpair. Anyways, after that hand, I keep chipping up, to a total of 940 when I decide that I need to eat dinner. I leave with the full intention of returning an hour later, but then I decide that I'm actually pretty tired and call it a night after dinner at 8:30. It's both a bad sign and a promising sign that the 4-5 biggest pots I've invested in have all been losses. (To be fair, one of them was the 80% equity I had with the nut straight that got sucked out with one card to go by the second nut straight with a flush draw). The general pattern I've heard people talk about wanting is to win big pots, lose some medium pots, and win a lot of small pots (assuming one plays aggressively). Instead, I've simply won a lot of pots, small, medium, and big, but I've lost a number of ginormous pots. The bright side is of course that I've already been a winning player despite this hole in my game, and it should be a flaw that's easily correctable, meaning my win rate would probably sky rocket if I were able to reduce those -$400/-$500 swings to, on average, -$100/-$200 swings.
-Summary-
Time at 1-2 cash tables: 16 hours
1-2 Cash: +$620
Time at the tournies: ~3.5 hours
Tournies: -$330
Poker total: +$290
Gas and food: -$30
Net: +$260
-On record career to date-
Time at the 1-2 cash tables: 47 hours
1-2 Cash: +$1890
Time at the 2-5 cash tables: 4.5 hours
2-5 Cash: -$200
Total time at cash tables: 52 hours
Cash games: +$1690
Time at the tournies: 12 hours
Tournies: -$570
Poker total: +$1120
Net: ~ +$1010
